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Month: August 2005

Will we have three new faces next time?

Will we have three new faces next time?

It could be all change at the next election The focus of British political gamblers over the months since the General Election has been on the next Conservative leader. There is a market on the next Labour leader (and the deputy too), along with betting on when Tony Blair will resign as Prime Minister and Labour leader. There is no market as yet on the Liberal Democrat leadership, where there are two interesting questions: when will Charles Kennedy go, and…

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Has he changed his mind too late?

Has he changed his mind too late?

Will Clarke’s switch on the euro come across as common sense or opportunism? In the Conservative leadership race, the chances of Kenneth Clarke seem to have been rescued from a badly flagging position since Clarke – the only really prominent Conservative to have supported the euro – admitted that he now saw the single currency as “a failure”. Less than two weeks ago, Clarke’s campaign was being deserted by former supporters such as Tony Baldry, with only John Bercow and…

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Bank holiday competition

Bank holiday competition

Win a prize that money cannot buy To occupy you over the bank holiday, another of politicalbetting.com’s occasional prediction competitions. It looks like the only prize on offer will be the admiring respect of your peers on the site. The rules Post your entry as a comment on this thread. Please don’t use this thread for anything other than entries – discussion of the questions can go on the thread below this one. Entries close at 11.59pm BST on Saturday…

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Sunday press roundup, 28th August 2005

Sunday press roundup, 28th August 2005

Weekend words weighed The Conservative leadership election gets heavy coverage in today’s papers. The Sunday Times reminds readers that the left-leaning former minister Tim Yeo was still in the race, but has now dropped out to back Kenneth Clarke. Clarke is interviewed in the paper and, in a sentence that both his supporters and opponents are likely to enjoy, is quoted as saying: “I find it almost comic the number of people who tell me they would vote Tory if…

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Saturday markets update, 27th August 2005

Saturday markets update, 27th August 2005

New, moving and interesting markets this week In last week’s markets update, we commented that the fixed odds betting on the German general election predicted that Angela Merkel was almost certain to become Chancellor after the 18th September election (which has now been formally authorised by the Constitutional Court). This is still the case, with Merkel 1/16 to become Chancellor, and the CDU–CSU 1/33 to be the largest party in the Bundestag. However, Cantor Spreadfair has added interest by creating…

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Senator vs Senator in 2008?

Senator vs Senator in 2008?

The favourites on both sides are Washington insiders There was a time, 40 years ago, when a career in the US Senate seemed a prerequisite for the Presidency. In 1960, 1964, 1968 and 1972, both major party candidates were serving or former Senators. But Richard Nixon’s 1972 defeat of George McGovern (the candidates are pictured in a not-quite-full-colour “coffee cup poll”) was the last time this happened. Since then, no serving or former Senator has been elected as President, though…

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Labour’s fight for a third term…

Labour’s fight for a third term…

…in New Zealand In Saturday’s article we mentioned Centrebet’s market on the 17th September general election in New Zealand. Paradoxically inspired by Matthew Parris’s downgrading of the globetrotting political columnist… It’s about the Game. It’s about jousting. It’s about personality, performance, plots, ploys and counter-ploys. With sinking heart I realise that I and my ilk are really no more than sports commentators of a rarefied sport. Adjust your settings and you can play it anywhere. …let’s try to handicap the…

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