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Month: July 2005

Will the Tory race be affected by IDS’s political ping pong?

Will the Tory race be affected by IDS’s political ping pong?

Ousted leader: “threatening to leave the party” With the Tories gearing themselves up for an intense autumn when it will be decided whether Michael Howard’s successor should be elected by a ballot of the party membership the man ousted by the parliamentary party in October 2003, Ian Duncan Smith, is reported to be threatening to resign his membership. According to the Sunday Telegraph this morning IDS has “told colleagues that he will take the extraordinary step if two people he…

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Are the Tories heading for a fourth successive defeat?

Are the Tories heading for a fourth successive defeat?

What happens if the new leader makes no difference? Although the poll moves away from the Tories have not been as great as after previous General Elections there’ve been few crumbs of comfort in the few surveys that have been carried out. We have hardly mentioned the post-May 5th polls on the site because this close to the election the question of what respondents might do in four years time is not very relevant. Also the Olympic 2012 decision and…

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Will Hilary move from FLOTUS to PROTUS*?

Will Hilary move from FLOTUS to PROTUS*?

Is it going to be Hilary vs Rudolf or Hilary vs John Even though George Bush’s second term only began on January 20th would-be seekers after their parties’ nominations are already talking with potential backers and putting visits to New Hampshire into their diaries in preparation for the 2008 race. And because Bush cannot stand again there’ll will be fierce fights amongst both the Democrats and the Republicans to get the precious nominations. If the UK betting markets have got…

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Would Hague have fared better with a wig?

Would Hague have fared better with a wig?

Can a bald leader beat one with hair? If you aspire to the leadership of your party and are a bit thin on top one of the most depressing political facts is that in modern times a party led by a bald man has never beaten a party led by someone with hair in a UK general election. The only time the country has had bald man at Number 10 was between 1940 and 1955 when first it was Churchill,…

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Punters lose out again on Blair’s departure

Punters lose out again on Blair’s departure

Even when he looks down keep following Lucky Tony For the fourth time in just two years punters who piled in to bet on Tony Blair’s imminent departure are set to lose money on the political betting markets. In the aftermath of the May 5th General Election the price on him stepping aside during 2005 was just 2/1. On the Betfair exchange one punter bet that he would be out by September at a price less than evens. More bookmakers…

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Will David Davis get hit by the favourite’s “curse”?

Will David Davis get hit by the favourite’s “curse”?

How long will the smiles last? One of the rules of Tory leadership contests is that the early favourite never wins. We thought that the Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis, was going to buck this trend as the money piled on him during June and early July pushing the implied probability represented by his betting price to nearly 62%. This has moved back sharply and is only just above evens – at a 52% chance. We’ve observed before in this…

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Is Angela Merkel set to be the next German Chancellor?

Is Angela Merkel set to be the next German Chancellor?

Would a Schroeder defeat mean that it’s all change in Europe? If the polls and the betting markets have the German election right then Angela Merkel’s grouping of Christian Democrats and its Bavarian-based associate party Christian Social Union are on their way to a victory in the national ballot which is now set to take place on September 18th. The “starting gun” was fired on Thursday when the German President, Horst Koehler, announced that he had agreed to Chancellor Schroeder’s…

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Can Karl Rove survive the CIA leak scandal?

Can Karl Rove survive the CIA leak scandal?

It’s 6/1 against him having to go The Dublin-based international betting exchange, Tradesports, has opened a market on whether George Bush’s closest aide and architect of his election victories, Karl Rove, will announce his resignation on or before 30 September 2005. The current price is about 6/1. The heart of the issue is whether Rove told a journalist that the wife of a prominent critic of the White House’s Iraq polcy was a covert CIA agent and if he did…

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