Do the Tories stand any chance of wininng? The mood amongst Liberal Democrats at the PB.C party at the weekend was that defending the Cheadle by-election a fortnight today might be a tougher challenge than the current Betfair price might suggest. There are a number of issues:- Will Labour supporters switch? With a Lib Dem majority in 2001 of just 33 votes Cheadle was right at the top of the Tory hit list and this put the squeeze on Labour…
Will the bill give David Davis a chance to shine against Clarke? With about 20 Labour MPs rebelling in last night’s second reading vote on the ID cards bill the betting exchange, Betfair has opened a market on whether the Government will get the legislation on the statute book during this session of Parliament. This is the first time that I can recall that gamblers have been able to have a punt on a specific piece of legislation although so…
Have people really forgotten how they voted already In their latest poll ICM had Labour with a 7% lead compared with the 3% that real voters gave the party in the election seven weeks earlier. Fine you might conclude – the ructions over the leadership are clearly causing problems. However from the detailed data from the survey, now out, it’s possible to draw a different conclusion. More people said they would vote Tory now than told the interviewers that they…
Has the Hague experience blighted Cameron’s chances? Apart from having gone to Eton – his parent’s decision, one assumes, and not his – the other concern about David Cameron’s candiditure is his age. After the experience of William Hague, who was surely promoted too quickly, there are worries about handing the leadership to someone in their 30s. The Howard pattern – going for someone in their 60s – was going in the opposite direction and this might be another factor…
A full round up of pictures from the party is available at the site of Lucille de Villiers – the fiance of my son Robert and the designer of the Politicalbetting masthead. I’m having some problems putting them on this site but this is my favourite – Sophia and Graham seeing each other’s point of view! This has Book-Value and Robert in the foreground with Augustus Carp and Icarus at the bar. In this one TomThumb (pink shirt) talks with…
The faces behind the names – all revealed tonight! With Politicalbetting users gathering in London this evening for their post-General Election party there can be little doubt that the focus of discussion will be the South Staffordshire result. Although nobody doubted that the Tories were going to win very few election-watchers stuck their necks out to forecast that Patrick Cormack would have been returned with an increased majority. Before Thursday the view of many, including me, was that this was…
Does Cormack’s victory have implications for Cheadle? The victory by Patrick Cormack in the delayed South Staffordshire election with an increased majority is very much in line with our first call on the contest on May 24th when we urged users to get on SkyBet’s Labour vote share market which was then offering evens at 30% or less. Fortunately Skybet’s withdrawal from the market at the weekend meant that anybody tempted by my forecast that UKIP would eat into the…
Is his “automatic succession” still a near certainty? Yesterday’s little Commons concession over the operation of Gordon Brown’s tax credit system is a timely reminder of what a dangerous a position the Chancellor of the Exchequer holds. For although he has had a fairly charmed life until now you cannot assume that things will continue to go well for the politician who gave up his chances of becoming Labour leader at that famous dinner at the Granita restaurant all those…