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Month: November 2004

General Election Prediction time (RECOVERED)

General Election Prediction time (RECOVERED)

Let’s do some number crunching With just over five months from the predicted General Election day of 05/05/05 it’s time we started making some forecasts of what we think might happen first in terms of the vote share and secondly the number of Commons seats. LABOUR VOTES. Our formula is based in the chronic tendency of the pollsters to always over-state Labour. In two of the last three General Election every single poll from every single pollster produced an exaggerated…

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Are the bookies scared of Blunkett?

Are the bookies scared of Blunkett?

Why no WILL BLUNKETT SURVIVE markets? In recent years a healthy tradition has grown up of betting on whether politicians in trouble will survive. Within days of the David Kelly case last year you could back or lay on whether or not the main players – Alastair Campbell, Geoff Hoon, Tony Blair, Andrew Gilligan, Gavyn Davies – would hold onto their jobs beyond September 30 2003. In terms of taste the Kelly case was far worse than the Home Secretary’s…

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The Politicalbetting Top Ten – November 28 2004

The Politicalbetting Top Ten – November 28 2004

UK General Election back as most popular market With two new polls both giving totally different pictures it’s not a surprise that the UK General Election is back at the top of the politicalbetting top 10 – which is based on “click-throughs” to online bookmakers from the site. If you are thinking of betting in the UK markets it’s worth recalling that at the 2001 General Election every single poll from every single pollster over-estimated Labour. Our safety first strategy…

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Labour back at 2001 General Election level – Indy poll

Labour back at 2001 General Election level – Indy poll

Has Blair really not been hurt by Iraq, Kelly, and Hutton? The Independent on Sunday’s new pollster, Communicate Research, has Labour back at their 2001 General Election share according to their latest survey out today. The figures with changes on the same poll last month are CON 31 (-2), LAB 42(+2), LD 20(+3). At the last election Labour got 42%, the Tories 32.7% and the Lib Dems 18.8%. So the only change on 2001, according to CR, is a small…

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Welcome to the new world of polling transparency

Welcome to the new world of polling transparency

Revealed – How the pollsters produce their numbers People who like to probe behind the headline figures that are issued by the polling firms are going to have a field day following the introduction of the British Polling Council rules requiring pollsters to publish the background data that was used. For the first time the main pollsters are having to publish a specified range of information that went into producing their headline figures so that interested observers can subject them…

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What are we to make of the White House Race rigging allegations?

What are we to make of the White House Race rigging allegations?

Is former Labour minister, Michael Meacher on to something? At the risk of appearing a bad loser, a conspiracy theorist or a paranoid we publish extracts from an article by former Labour cabinet minister, Michael Meacher, in this week’s New Statesman. He raises questions that do seem worthy of further investigation about the exit polls on November 2nd in states where there was electronic voting (above) and the rest. Meacher’s claim is that the polls were reasonably accurate in the…

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YouGov shows Labour lead down to 3%

YouGov shows Labour lead down to 3%

Slightly better news for Michael Howard After the NOP and ICM polls showing Labour leads of 8-9% this month’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph has the margin dropping to just 3%. The figures are:- LAB 35% (-1): CON 32% (n/c): LD 23% (+1): UKIP 5% (n/c) Compared with the YouGov poll at the start of October the Labour lead has been halved. Today’s poll is also good news for the Lib Dems with it returning to its highest share…

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Did this man’s tummy bug change the course of British Politics?

Did this man’s tummy bug change the course of British Politics?

For sometime now we’ve been meaning to draw users attention to the extraordinary internet book by the polling blogger, operator of UK Pollingreport and regular contributor to Politicalbetting, Anthony Wells. It’s called “What if Gordon Banks had played” and is a fun-packed counterfactual political history of the 1970s based on the premise that Banks played in the quarter-final of the 1970 World Cup three days before the General Election that ended Harold Wilson’s Government and saw Edward Heath’s Tories win…

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