Punters make it a 77% chance that TMay’ll make it to the end of the year which seems about right

Punters make it a 77% chance that TMay’ll make it to the end of the year which seems about right

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Will the PM face a challenge or not? In the immediate aftermath of the disappointing general election for the Conservatives George Osborne suggested that the the Prime Minister was “a dead woman walking” a view that was shared by many who expected an early resignation. The Tories, after all, are the party that is said to be most ruthless with a failing leader and in those few days after the election she was at her most vulnerable. Yet she didn’t…

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Gerrymandered congressional districts could save the House for the GOP

Gerrymandered congressional districts could save the House for the GOP

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But a GOP-controlled House leaves Trump with fewer excuses for 2020 The Great Dealmaker has not had the greatest first seven months in the White House. No wall, no healthcare reform, a chaotic West Wing and innumerable self-inflicted PR gaffes are not an ideal start to a presidency. Ironically, the one president that Trump rates himself behind is perhaps the only one to have had a worse start: at least there’s been no civil war so far. Those failures and…

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Johnson’s refusal to back his boss on student immigration will surely lead to recriminations

Johnson’s refusal to back his boss on student immigration will surely lead to recriminations

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Is Johnson on manoeuvres? His refusal to back PM on immigration data looks interesting https://t.co/AAoXqydrmv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2017 Get ready for an intense 6 weeks of politicking We are nearly at the end of August and only weeks away from the conferences of the main parties. The most interesting one will be the Tories in Manchester which could just might be the prelude to a leadership challenge and contest. Mrs. May called the election three year…

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What’s next over Brexit? The question that no one is asking

What’s next over Brexit? The question that no one is asking

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  In their seminal anthem, Busted reported back from the year 3000 that not much had changed (but we live underwater). I don’t propose to look that far into the future but let’s borrow a souped-up De Lorean and head for 2030. By then the current crop of politicians will have written their memoirs or be editing newspapers. Given geological timescales, we can expect the island of Britain still to be sitting off the mainland of Europe. With current rates…

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Vince Cable slams TMay over bogus student immigration figures which “came on her watch”

Vince Cable slams TMay over bogus student immigration figures which “came on her watch”

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Bogus student visa figures "happened on May's watch" https://t.co/jOsaNoVzox — Liberal Democrats (@LibDems) August 24, 2017 Coalition battles revived Vince Cable, the LD leader who as Coalition Business Secretary had responsibility for universities, has attacked TMay, following the news that student immigration figures are nothing like on the scale that the government had previously thought. As reported in the media earlier new figures have been published based on exit checks from UK ports, that show that 97% cent of foreign…

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Trump’s attacks on the media are simply failing to resonate and he’s well behind in 2020 match-ups

Trump’s attacks on the media are simply failing to resonate and he’s well behind in 2020 match-ups

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Trump's attacks on the media not resonating. This from @ppppolls pic.twitter.com/3YRnSBrigb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 24, 2017 Trump's Russia links "fake news"? @ppppolls pic.twitter.com/d82Ihjq58t — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 24, 2017 After Charlottesville and the mixed messages that came out of the White House only to be followed by another huge barrage of attacks against the “media” new polling overnight suggests that the President is not making any inroads as the above polling suggests. Trump needs something to attack…

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How leading Tories did in their own seats at the General Election

How leading Tories did in their own seats at the General Election

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Why I was wrong about Rudd Over the past few weeks when discussing Amber Rudd’s chances of succeeding TMay I have broadly dismissed those who have said the tightness of her majority in Hastings (346) rules her out of becoming leader. My argument had been that leaders generally do better in their own constituency than their party because of things like local pride. Not so has been the response of a couple of PBers who have been in touch to…

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Hung Parliaments are becoming the norm and we have to get used to it

Hung Parliaments are becoming the norm and we have to get used to it

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Inevitably it means governments that are weak and limited The British political system has a reputation for producing strong governments. It is often seen as one of its virtues. For a long time, it was true. From December 1918, the first election in which women could vote, until February 1974, a single party had a majority in the House of Commons for all bar 3 years 3 months of that period. Times have moved on, though many seem not to…

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