Big danger for TMay is that the Tory process for ousting a leader is totally separate from the contest that would follow

Big danger for TMay is that the Tory process for ousting a leader is totally separate from the contest that would follow

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There would be no identified assassin One of the things that doesn’t seem to have been appreciated about the CON rules is that the process of ousting a leader is totally separate from the leadership election that could follow. If 15% of Conservative MPs, 47, request that there is a confidence vote in the leader then that would happen without those behind it having to identify themselves and without the move being linked to any of the names that have…

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TMay struggles on in spite of a bad cough and having to deal with a heckler

TMay struggles on in spite of a bad cough and having to deal with a heckler

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TMay keeping going in spite of her cough pic.twitter.com/Eo6aJTDMZt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 4, 2017 Amber Rudd telling Boris Johnson to stand for May pic.twitter.com/VGYeb5CroR — Mollie Goodfellow (@hansmollman) October 4, 2017 The heckler who interpreted TMay's speech pic.twitter.com/x3dh9WhQvK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 4, 2017 Very few young people in the audience pic.twitter.com/oEhWFpM6mt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 4, 2017 Front cover of the latest Private Eye pic.twitter.com/etXaxBGsY9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 4, 2017 Say what you…

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Following her Boris paternity test joke Emily Thornberry becomes favourite to succeed Corbyn

Following her Boris paternity test joke Emily Thornberry becomes favourite to succeed Corbyn

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She might be the one facing TMay at the next election In the last few days there’s been a move to Emily Thornberry in the LAB leadership betting where she’s now favourite almost across the board. This all started with the suggestion a few weeks that she had the backing of UNITE’s Len McCluskey to succeed Corbyn whenever that happens. She then got a superb reception at last week’s Labour conference in Brighton (watch the video) particularly with her Brexit…

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TMontgomerie says BoJo would be a massive roll of the dice but better than slow death under TMay

TMontgomerie says BoJo would be a massive roll of the dice but better than slow death under TMay

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To switch or not to switch In the end BJohnson’s much anticipated conference speech was totally on message and it was hard to find even the most minuscule of difference with the PM. For just about the first time the conference hall was packed and the delegates seemed to be enjoying themselves. But it wasn’t one of the ex-Mayor’s greatest speeches. He had some good jokes and his close was rather subdued and almost took the audience by surprise. Maybe…

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The TMay successor betting moves to BJohnson after suggestions that DDavis no longer interested

The TMay successor betting moves to BJohnson after suggestions that DDavis no longer interested

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And ARudd “hires Crosby” to help her defend Hastings Boris Johnson, who just over a month ago had been down at 6% in the next CON leader betting has now moved back sharply and is 17% clear favourite following reports that David Davis will no longer want it. Second in line is Jacob Rees-Mogg who’s fringe meeting in Manchester yesterday attracted huge amount of publicity particularly the way that he handled a heckler. He is at 12%. Perhaps the most…

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Nearly two in three voters don’t approve of the way the government is handling the Brexit negotiations

Nearly two in three voters don’t approve of the way the government is handling the Brexit negotiations

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Several pollsters are tracking how the public is viewing the Brexit negotiations and the latest, from ORB shows a sharp net decline in approval. Given the importance of this single job to the TMay minority government it is a polling tracker that we need to keep a close eye on. Things are not helped at the moment by the apparent divide caused by the Foreign Secretary appearing to have a different view from the government. One factor is that Labour’s…

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The 5.8% increased CON GE17 vote share would’ve been a big deal if only LAB hadn’t gone up 9.8%

The 5.8% increased CON GE17 vote share would’ve been a big deal if only LAB hadn’t gone up 9.8%

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It’s straw-clutching to pretend this was a positive It has started. Senior Tories at their conference in Manchester such as Liam Fox trying to gloss over TMay’s loss of majority on June 8th by arguing that the party increased its vote share by 5.8% at the general election. This is a nonsense misleading figure unless you mention as well that the main opposition party’s votes went up by four points more – hence the loss of seats and the majority….

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