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Latest Electoral Calculus projection has CON 15 seats ahead even on a 0.5% lower average vote share

1/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The latest seat prediction from Electoral Calculus another reminder to LAB that the system now works in favour of the Tories. CON average vote share 0.5% behind but with clear lead on seatshttps://t.co/VmVdusO6wz pic.twitter.com/QsV9I7FkL0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2018 This is, of course, on the current old boundaries I have made this point before but the latest projection from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus is an excellent example of how under current boundaries the system works in favour of…

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The Sun once again leading the pack reporting negative developments on TMay’s future

1/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The Sun’s Trevor Newton Dunn reporting a potential dramatic development that would be a nail in the coffin for the beleaguered TMayhttps://t.co/QJKMDDS3Ox pic.twitter.com/6th5JbAIOe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2018 The frequency of the paper’s reports should worry TMay’s backers Last week it will be recalled it was the Sun’s Harry Cole who in two exclusive reports highlighted that the number of CON MPs signing letters to 1992 Chief Graham Brady was on the increase and was perhaps almost there….

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Truss for leader & PM! A real grassroots move or a spoof?

31/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A new arrival on Twitter – the first follower Ladbrokes Politics Building a brighter future with @trussliz #InLizWeTruss pic.twitter.com/8W2iBkP2Fw — Liz Truss (@TrussForLeader) January 31, 2018 Only @trussliz can take on @jeremycorbyn and win! #WeBackTruss https://t.co/r9a6HjkCE9 — Liz Truss (@TrussForLeader) January 30, 2018 #WeBackTruss pic.twitter.com/qWzhHkt1XU — Liz Truss (@TrussForLeader) January 30, 2018

Jeremy Corbyn – the new Maggie Thatcher

31/1/2018 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhEPyjolGQQ A provoking suggestion from Cyclefree I can hear the spluttering already. How could such a comparison be made? How dare someone even make it! After all, Corbyn represents pretty much everything Thatcher fought against. And for Corbyn Thatcher epitomised the hard-hearted neoliberal capitalist ideology he has consistently opposed his entire political life. But consider the following: – • Both were in the right place at the right time, whether through luck (in Corbyn’s case, it being his turn to…

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As she leaves for China TMay says she’s not a quitter and will lead party into GE2022

31/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

How's this going to go down with CON. MPs? She insists that she'll fight next election https://t.co/3BFYNssbe4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2018 At least this could bring things to a head With all the talk about the number of letters going to Graham Brady demanding a confidence vote in Mrs Mays leadership she has responded by making it very clear that her intention is to see it out until the next general election. This flies in the face…

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Ex-YouGov President, Peter Kellner, raises doubts about the “No GE17 Youthquake” claims

30/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

For those who have been following the BES report that concludes that there was no “youthquake” at GE17 the former President of YouGov, Peter Kellner, makes some controversial observations in Prospect casting doubt on the core conclusion that has made the headlines. He writes: “…their (BES) latest pronouncement goes way beyond what their data can support. They base their analysis on two post-election, face-to-face surveys after the 2015 and 2017 general elections. Their sample size in 2015 was 2,987; in…

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Poll boost for TMay as she struggles to hang on at Number 10

30/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

YouGov finds more thinking she should stay than leave With much of the talk at Westminster being over whether there will be a confidence vote on TMay’s leadership there’s some encouragement for her in a YouGov poll. When asked if she should stand down or not 41% said she should remain and 34% leave. Amongst GE17 CON voters the split was 69% remain to 18% who wanted her to leave. Brexit Remain voters went 38% to 37% that she should…

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Part 2 of why the Tories should not fear Corbyn becoming PM in the foreseeable future

30/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

CON MPs are not passing away at anything like the rate they used to Given the tightness of Mrs. May’s parliamentary position one way that could get Corbyn close to number ten is if LAB could pick up seats off CON in by-elections. There’s a good precedent. At GE1992 John Major surprised just about everyone by holding onto power with a majority of 20. Unfortunately for him that was not going to be enough and during the period of that…

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