Given the appalling weather let’s be thankful that yesterday wasn’t a general election or a referendum

Given the appalling weather let’s be thankful that yesterday wasn’t a general election or a referendum

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There were 4 by-election taking place local councils yesterday and the results should make interesting reading because these happened on the worst Thursday for the weather across the country in decades. Who would have thought, for instance, that one of the biggest Premier League matches of the season, Arsenal vs Manchester City, would take place in what appeared to be a half empty Stadium. A lot of people with tickets, and they are not cheap at the Emirates, simply didn’t…

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As we wait for tomorrow’s big Brexit speech from Mrs. May

As we wait for tomorrow’s big Brexit speech from Mrs. May

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Former PM Tony Blair claims there is now a 50% chance Brexit won't happen https://t.co/CB9cDJEgo9 pic.twitter.com/obT3f0hLCy — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) March 1, 2018 3 options for May's speech tomorrow – @PCollinsTimes also has a lovely payoff line £ https://t.co/BxHLITBLSh pic.twitter.com/B7O177hzZZ — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) March 1, 2018 This is a proper, devastating political speech by John Major. There is argument, passion and facts. Big picture and small details. The fact that the Brexiteers are attacking him and not his arguments…

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Ladbrokes now make it evens that TMay won’t survive the year

Ladbrokes now make it evens that TMay won’t survive the year

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Ladbrokes report a surge in bets over recent days on TMay being replaced as PM this year and make it evens that she won’t survive. There’s 4/1 on offer that a General Election is called this year, or it’s a 9/4 chance the next one happens in 2019. Jessica Bridge of Ladbrokes said: “Money talks, and punters think the PM could be out of a job sooner rather than later.” I’m not sure after having bet in October that she…

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Huge variation opens up in the polling for November’s US MidTerms

Huge variation opens up in the polling for November’s US MidTerms

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RealClearPolitics The US phone-online survey divide By far the biggest elections that we know are taking place this year are the November US midterms when the whole of the House of Representatives is up for election and about a third of the Senate. The main national picture in the polling is seen in the data in the RealClear Politics data above – the 2018 Generic Congressional Vote where we have seen two almost totally contradictory polls in the past couple…

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PaddyPower makes it 3/1 that TMay won’t survive beyond the end of March

PaddyPower makes it 3/1 that TMay won’t survive beyond the end of March

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And it’s 2/1 that there’ll be a general election this year A spokesman for the bookie said: “Theresa May’s time as PM has been a constant case of one step forward followed by several steps backwards – and that’s just her political viewpoints. The pressure is ramping up on May, and the odds are shortening that she’ll be ousted, prompting another General Election and – likely – another Brexit Referendum.” UK POLITICS ODDS: 2/1 General Election to be called in…

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Chris Rennard’s “Winning Here” – the requiem for the battered Lib Dems or the handbook for another revival?

Chris Rennard’s “Winning Here” – the requiem for the battered Lib Dems or the handbook for another revival?

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A review of Chris Rennard’s newly published “Winning Here” “ Paddy’s personal ratings were shown to be very high in our poll, even at the outset of the by- election campaign. This helped to persuade him of the validity of the other poll findings.” Thus Chris Renard then the LD director of campaigns and elections coaxed Paddy Ashdown into accepting his formula for winning the 1993 Newbury by-election. The humour and shrewdness about people’s motivation mark this first volume of…

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Suddenly the money’s going on 2018 being the year of the next General Election

Suddenly the money’s going on 2018 being the year of the next General Election

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Exactly three weeks ago 2018 was rated as just a 3.8% on Betfair’s “Year of Next General Election” market. Tonight it has reached 18.3% and is now the third favourite. Clearly there is an enormous amount of political turbulence and TMay might find herself in trouble should the problems with Brexit continue but I’ve not shifted my view that the election will take place as planned in 2022. Rees-Mogg remains betting favourite for next PM. Thanks to Betdata.io for the…

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