The London election polling test finds that LAB was overstated by 4 points in the final polls

The London election polling test finds that LAB was overstated by 4 points in the final polls

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What does this say about current national polling? It is not often we get a real election against which we can compare final polls and this month’s London elections provided one such opportunity. The LAB/CON/LD shares in the final polls from YouGov and Survation are shown in the chart and compared with the overall result. As can be seen both pollsters had LAB at 51% which compared the 47% that actually happened. Survation got the Tories spot on while YouGov…

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Punters now make it a 32% chance that TMay will be out this year

Punters now make it a 32% chance that TMay will be out this year

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With all the machinations that are going on within the cabinet over the divisions on Brexit it is perhaps no wonder that here has been renewed interest on betting that she’ll be out this year. The Betdata.io chart above shows the movement over the past month with next year, presumably post-Brexit, continuing to be the favourite. Certainly Mrs. May has a huge challenge dealing with the increasing number of Brexit issues and this hasn’t been helped by Corbyn’s new approach…

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On the third Thursday of May exactly a year ago Mrs May launched the Conservative manifesto

On the third Thursday of May exactly a year ago Mrs May launched the Conservative manifesto

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The anniversary of the #DementiaTax On the third Thursday of May exactly a year ago Mrs. May was enjoying huge leads in the polls as she travelled to key Tory target of Halifax (LAB GE2015 majority 428) to launch the Conservative manifesto. The polling in that week was pointing to a landslide. GfK and ICM had her party 20% ahead with leads of 18% by Kantar and 15% by Ipsos-MORI. The spread betting markets had a CON “buy” level of…

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Tonight’s NEW PB/ Polling Matters podcast: What drives how we vote + public opinion on a customs union & a united Ireland

Tonight’s NEW PB/ Polling Matters podcast: What drives how we vote + public opinion on a customs union & a united Ireland

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the demographic and ideological trends shaping our politics and how they drive voting intention. Keiran and Leo also look at public opinion on customs unions and the impact that polling is having on Theresa May’s calculations when it comes to Northern Ireland. Follow this week’s guests @keiranpedley @leobarasi

Why I think it will be Gove & Sajid in a CON members’ ballot not Moggsy or BoJo

Why I think it will be Gove & Sajid in a CON members’ ballot not Moggsy or BoJo

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Being seen to be successful ministers will be crucial Ever since last June when Theresa May lost the Conservative Party its majority there has always been a chance of a leadership contest. We have had repeated stories about MPs being ready to send letters to the chairman of the 1922 committee seeking a confidence vote. The fact that this has not materialised so far doesn’t mean it is not going to happen. In view of the febrile state of the…

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Corbyn’s approach to Brexit risks alienating the enthusiastic young backers of a year ago

Corbyn’s approach to Brexit risks alienating the enthusiastic young backers of a year ago

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Will students continue to back Corbyn if he continues with his equivocation?https://t.co/n7aXmyNxIO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2018 But there are no signs that he cares The above article is one of a number that have been appearing recently from people who backed Corbyn’s LAB at GE2017 about his approach to Brexit. In many ways why should they be surprised because the manifesto on which the party fought the election was explicit. Labour was for Brexit. One of the…

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The Buckingham constituency where there must be a high chance of a by-election within 18 months

The Buckingham constituency where there must be a high chance of a by-election within 18 months

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There’s not been a “normal” election here since GE2005 One of the intriguing facets of the current speculation over the Speaker, John Bercow, is that there could be a by-election within the next year and a half in the Buckingham parliamentary constituency. There were reports at the weekend that Mr Bercow has indicated to friends that he plans to stand down in 2019 though there could be something earlier if the pressure on him continues. If he does step aside…

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