Bernie Sanders, 77, decides to take the plunge and moves to third in the nomination betting

Bernie Sanders, 77, decides to take the plunge and moves to third in the nomination betting

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But how seriously should we view his campaign? I must admit that I cannot see either 76 year old Joe Biden or 77 Bernie winning the nomination in eighteen months time. The former has yet to decide while Bernie, who ran Hillary close at WH2016, announced today that he’s going for it. He joins an increasingly crowded field of aspiring nominees and the race will be so unlike last time when it was really just down to two. What he…

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Why the TIGers make the DUP less powerful and a 2019 general election less likely

Why the TIGers make the DUP less powerful and a 2019 general election less likely

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Betting that it won’t happen this yet might now be value We all remember the dramatic Commons no confidence motion last month that TMay won but only with the help of the DUP. Without their 10 votes her government would have gone down and we would now be coming to the end of a general election campaign. At the time Mr. Corbyn warned that they make other attempts. Well since the departure…

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The seven’s great strength is that they’ve not tried to be too ambitious

The seven’s great strength is that they’ve not tried to be too ambitious

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The Independent Group is a vehicle designed for flexibility In March 1981 I was working at BBC News on the day of the famous Limehouse declaration which saw the launch of the SDP, the last big break away from the Labour Party. This was a massive development which until yesterday shaped our views of what a breakaway should look like. What Chuka and the other six MPs did yesterday was so different to 1981 because they weren’t creating a new…

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This could be right – Corbyn blocking moves for a second referendum triggering more MPs going

This could be right – Corbyn blocking moves for a second referendum triggering more MPs going

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Labour sources think crunch point for several other Labour MPs considering resigning the whip will be whether or not Corbyn accepts Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson amendment on Feb 27 calling for public vote on May’s deal, modelled on Good Friday Agreement referendum — Ross Kempsell (@rosskempsell) February 18, 2019 And could the moves against CON remainers be another recruiter? The first stage of deselection is complete in Totnes as @sarahwollaston's constituents fight back over her Brexit betrayal. @TotnesCA Thanks…

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On the Betfair exchange LAB’s chances of winning most seats next time drop to a 41% chance

On the Betfair exchange LAB’s chances of winning most seats next time drop to a 41% chance

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange On what is quite a momentous day in British politics it is quite hard to single out a specific market that has seen change. The one I’ve chosen is the next general election where punters who only last month rated LAB as a 50-50 chance to win most seats now put it at 41%. A lot depends on reaction to the move and whether the development gets traction in the media. For…

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Today could be the day that Corbyn’s Labour Party finally splits

Today could be the day that Corbyn’s Labour Party finally splits

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Solidarity ?? pic.twitter.com/lggiXOFRhX — Rebecca Long-Bailey (@RLong_Bailey) February 16, 2019 Whispers tonight that the Labour splitters will move tomorrow. Chuka Umunna’s team are not denying he is about to quit (they did deny when asked last week). — Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) February 17, 2019 Judging by activity on social media overnight there appears to be a reasonable chance that today could be the day that the Labour Party finally splinters. The Tweet above from Corbyn loyalist Rebecca Long-Bailey reflects one…

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Do Farage’s claims about 100k people signing up for his new party stand up?

Do Farage’s claims about 100k people signing up for his new party stand up?

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What do you mean by “signed up to”? Are you claiming 100,000 members, which would be twice as many as UKIP had, despite Arron Banks work on lapsed members. Or are the 100,000 just vague expressions of interest? — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) February 17, 2019 Or is the ex-UKIP leader taking the Trump approach to “facts”? A big development today has been the claim from ex-UKIP leader, Farage, about the success of bis new Brexit party in getting people to…

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