Since TIG was formed the Tories have enjoyed leads of between 4% and 11% in the standard voting intention polls

Since TIG was formed the Tories have enjoyed leads of between 4% and 11% in the standard voting intention polls

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Assessing the impact new group after its first month It is now almost a month since Chuka Umunna and others made their much publicised departure from LAB joining the new the Independent Group. The Wikipedia table above shows that’s happened in the standard voting polls since. These are separate from the surveys where there has been a special prompt for the new grouping which has produced some quite dramatic outcomes. In many ways responses have been dependent on the format…

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There could still be value in betting that the UK will leave on March 29th

There could still be value in betting that the UK will leave on March 29th

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange There are three big reasons why there might still be value in betting, currently 11%, on the UK leaving the EU on March 29th as laid down in the article 50 process. The first is Theresa May herself. She has been utterly determined and rigid over the past months and is still trying to get her deal through. There is clearly a growing realisation that if this does not happen on the…

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Vince Cable stepping down as LD leader. Layla Moran the opening favourite to succeed

Vince Cable stepping down as LD leader. Layla Moran the opening favourite to succeed

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On the eve of the Lib Dem Spring Conference in York the leader since GE2017, Twickenham MP Vince Cable, has announced tonight that he’s stepping thus opening up a leadership contest. This has not come as a surprise and it was always envisaged that his period as leader would be to bridge the gap following Tim Farron’s exit after GE2017. Two women head the betting. Layla Moran, who took Oxford West and Abingdon from the Tories two years ago is…

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Punters make it a 26% chance that Brexit won’t happen before 2022 – if at all

Punters make it a 26% chance that Brexit won’t happen before 2022 – if at all

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Doubts rise following the failure to agree a deal With MPs continuing with the voting on the amendments to the article 50 motion the chart above features a Betfair betting exchange market that I have not put on the site before. This is when will be the actual date of the UK’s exit. If you do not believe it is going to happen then you bet on the not before 2022 option…

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Osborne’s Standard has surely got this right – TMay is in office but not in power

Osborne’s Standard has surely got this right – TMay is in office but not in power

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Today’s ?@EveningStandard?: PM is in office but not in power – as rebels take control, EU offers delay and Chancellor again suggests compromise deal pic.twitter.com/BAbPHLSf9c — George Osborne (@George_Osborne) March 14, 2019 As we move into the most difficult fortnight for a prime minister in decades the former Chancellor and now editor of The London Evening Standard, George Osborne, has come out with the above front page about Theresa May. He’s right. A situation where ministers feel able to ignore…

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In all of this 2019 remains betting favourite for “year of next general election”

In all of this 2019 remains betting favourite for “year of next general election”

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Betdata.io. chart based on Betfair exchange How punters are seeing the dramatic Brexit moves Given the parliamentary deadlock over Brexit it is understandable why an early General Election is relatively highly rated by punters. The chart above shows the betting over the past 6 months and although 2019 has been quite a bit higher, at 45%, it still retains its position as favourite even at 37%. Under the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act the next election is due…

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Has the ERG won?

Has the ERG won?

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The sight of long-standing opponents of the EU voting on Tuesday against leaving the EU because May’s Withdrawal Agreement was not “proper Brexit” must have infuriated those MPs who voted for the deal despite not wishing to leave the EU. Ken Clarke, for instance. What a “proper Brexit” is will probably end up being the Schleswig-Holstein question of our time. (“The Schleswig-Holstein question is so complicated, only three men in Europe have ever understood it. One was Prince Albert, who…

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And so MPs move on to vote against leaving the EU with no deal

And so MPs move on to vote against leaving the EU with no deal

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Assuming that passes we move onto extending A50 So after last night’s excitement today’s focus is a new Commons vote at 7pm on ruling out the UK leaving the EU with no deal. Then we’ll get tomorrow’s Article 50 extension move. Assuming that both motions will pass from tomorrow the effort will be made to extend the Article 50 deadline. The question then will be put to the EU which will need all remaining EU members to agree. The overwhelming…

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