The locals – how the forecasters did

The locals – how the forecasters did

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The actual was CON -1334, LAB -83, LD +703 The above table was produced by Oxford Professor, Stephen Fisher, and published on his site on the day before the locals. Now we know the results it’s very useful to see how conventional forecasting methods compared against what actually happened and is a good reference for the future. The first two columns are by Stephen Fisher himself. It should be noted that Steven is one of the country’s leading political scientists…

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A big loser from the locals is Change UK who decided to sit these elections out

A big loser from the locals is Change UK who decided to sit these elections out

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It’ll be the LDs who’ll find it easier to present themselves as the voice of Remain The New Statesman’s Stephen Bush’s analysis sums up the post-local elections challenge for ChangeUK which, of course, did not participate yesterday. “….the reality is that if any party can now pivot to being the natural choice for Remainers who want to send a message at the European elections on 23 May, it is going to be the Liberal Democrats. What they need to do…

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The Tories and LDs doing better than the polls on the Projected National Vote Share

The Tories and LDs doing better than the polls on the Projected National Vote Share

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BBC Projected National Share of the vote (PNS) for the 2019 local elections:Con 28Lab 28LD 19Others 25 Only the second time all parties under 30%. Best Lib Dem share since 2010. pic.twitter.com/YINiVH3L8G — Steve Fisher (@StephenDFisher) May 3, 2019 Latest BBC Scorecard pic.twitter.com/Faq93AQEDB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 3, 2019 Corbyn’s LAB doing worse than EdM’s party four years ago The local results are coming in thick and fast and the LDs have just ABOUT achieved the 500 gain projection…

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The LDs – putting the coalition years behind them

The LDs – putting the coalition years behind them

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The counts start this morning in thousands of more seats In many ways this is all going to what had been expected. Rallings and Thrasher had predicted 400 LD gains while Tory elections expert, Lord Hayward, had put it at 500. We’ll have to see how this goes. A key measure will be the national equivalent vote share projection which will probably come out in the coming days. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

LDs the main gainers but there are a lot more results to come

LDs the main gainers but there are a lot more results to come

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Latest BBC scorecard pic.twitter.com/oteY2GR3QP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 3, 2019 Because the majority of results will be not Known until perhaps mid-afternoon it is hard to draw conclusions so far on this year’s local election results. The councils that have counted overnight have been more in the north of England where Labour has been struggling more than in the south. The Lib Dems have been making a number of gains but their best prospects will be in the councils…

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All the signs are that turnout is down markedly

All the signs are that turnout is down markedly

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My quickie Twitter survey Earlier this evening I tweeted to ask is people had any sense of what turnout has been like in the locals. My feeling from telling in Bedford is that it is down by quite a bit. These are some of the replies:- Seems low here in Bath. — Hal Westergaard (@hal_westergaard) May 2, 2019 very low here in Three Rivers — norman marsh (@viewfrommyshed) May 2, 2019 Steady in Fulwood, Sheffield at 1500. Suspect a better…

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If winning the Euro elections had been a good general election predictor William Hague would have become Prime Minister in 2001

If winning the Euro elections had been a good general election predictor William Hague would have become Prime Minister in 2001

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Instead Blair got 413 MPs and the Tories 166 This is starting to feel a bit tiresome those people taking European election voting intention polls and seeking them to apply to a general election. Sure the Tory shares down to 13% are terrible but history suggests that this is not a guide to any General Election outcome. Go back and look at the 2001. Two years earlier William Hague had secured most seats in the EU parliament for his Tories…

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