The CON Westminster polling looks dire as we head into next month’s local and EU elections

The CON Westminster polling looks dire as we head into next month’s local and EU elections

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Down 15-20 on the Tory GE2017 election outcome To get a good sense of how voting intention polls are going I always think it is best to look at all the recent surveys to spot the trend. And this April there is one big and clear message – the Tories are in a mess as we edge towards next week’s local elections and of course the Euro Parliament elections three weeks later. Although the polls in the table above are…

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On healthcare Farage, Trump’s biggest British cheerleader, is vulnerable

On healthcare Farage, Trump’s biggest British cheerleader, is vulnerable

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Those opposed the Brexit party should change the subject to the NHS Last November Donald Trump took a beating in the midterm elections when his opponents, the Democrats, were able to make his threats to undermine what public health system there is in the United States into an issue. This is an approach that will be used at WH2020 for once something has become an an entitlement then it is exceedingly difficult and politically dangerous to take it away. In…

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Boris could once again suffer the curse of being the long term CON leadership favourite

Boris could once again suffer the curse of being the long term CON leadership favourite

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Chart betdata.io How the betting moved ahead of the 2016 race We all know the truism from Conservative leadership contests that the person who most likely seems to be the successor never gets it. Michael Heseltine, Michael Portillo and David Davis would no doubt attest to the difficulty of being the long-term favourite I love looking at historical betting charts showing how punters were observing and risking their money on a big political outcome in the past where we have…

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Is it Bye-bye to by-elections?

Is it Bye-bye to by-elections?

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Sunil looks at the trend and the reasons why This is a two-part series bringing to your attention the decline of the humble Westminster by-election over the last 100 years. In Part 1, I will discuss how the reasons for triggering by-elections have changed since 1918. In Part 2, I will discuss in more detail the phenomenon (or lack) of MPs resigning and re-contesting their seats over principle or when they change party allegiance. Since the 1918 election, when universal…

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ChangeUK is in danger of running out of steam and it has only itself to blame

ChangeUK is in danger of running out of steam and it has only itself to blame

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Having to face two big elections in a very short period of time looks as though it has taken its toll on TIG following what appear to have been a number of strategic mistakes. The following comment by IanB2 on the PB thread last night, is a good analysis and is worthy of a full thread on its own. “..Sad to say, I am beginning to think that TIG has blown its chance.,,They ducked the opportunity to do a policy…

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With the first LE2018 postal votes being cast the signs are not good for the Tories

With the first LE2018 postal votes being cast the signs are not good for the Tories

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The first of next month’s two electoral challenges for the Tories While everybody seems to be getting excited about the May 23rd Euro elections there has been little focus on the big hurdle that the Tories have to surmount three weeks before that. These are the local elections in England which cover almost all of the country excluding London and just one or two counties. Each year during a four years cycle a different set of local elections takes place…

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Brexit is Ulsterising British politics

Brexit is Ulsterising British politics

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One issue has become so important as to define the entire system Most people would regard the Good Friday Agreement as a Very Good Thing. Certainly, it was so at the time and 21 years later, that broadly remains so. Despite the continuing background presence of dissident political violence – sadly this week coming into the foreground – the Agreement brought peace and an agreed political structure to the province. As with much else in Irish politics, the GFA has…

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On this day exactly two years ago it was Peak Theresa May (and Nick Timothy)

On this day exactly two years ago it was Peak Theresa May (and Nick Timothy)

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On this day two years ago ComRes was just finalising its poll for the S Mirror and the Independent. These were the published figuresCON 50%LAB 25%LD 11%UKIP 7%SNP 4%GRN 3% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 19, 2019 Two years ago today pic.twitter.com/0hBCC5jVNH — Sunder Katwala (@sundersays) April 18, 2019 On the betting markets it was a 92% chance that the Tories would win a majority. It got even tighter than that – on the weekend after Tory performance in that…

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