There could be hope for CHUK yet because of being top of the ballot

There could be hope for CHUK yet because of being top of the ballot

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Never ignore the alphabetical bonus of being top Above is a photograph of my ballot paper in Eastern region for Thursday’s election and looking at it there are some issues that might help or hinder the various parties. I was with some old election hands in the pub at the weekend and we were discussing how ballot form order and and placing can actually have an impact on the final result. At the locals earlier in the month where I…

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Remember that at the 2014 Euro elections YouGov, by some margin, was the most accurate pollster

Remember that at the 2014 Euro elections YouGov, by some margin, was the most accurate pollster

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2014 Euros polling – Wikipedia The others overstated UKIP lead by upto 7% With polls coming thick and fast at the moment the one big trend is that YouGov has been showing markedly better numbers for TBP and the LDs than just about all the others. At times like this it is useful to look at the record and what happened last time. The table above shows how well YouGov did in 2014 compared with the other firms and overstated…

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Putting Thursday into context – A look back at previous UK Euro elections

Putting Thursday into context – A look back at previous UK Euro elections

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From Sunil Prasannan Well, just a few months ago, it seemed certain that, with a scheduled 29th March 2019 date for Brexit, the UK was done with EU elections for good. But, it looks like that we are in the EU for at least a few months more, so here we are! On the other hand, we are a political betting site, so what’s wrong with a full-blown nation-wide poll in 2019? The recent Local Elections (given that many cities and…

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Labour’s last-ditch bid to stop its Remain backing voters switching to the LDs and the Greens

Labour’s last-ditch bid to stop its Remain backing voters switching to the LDs and the Greens

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In Thursday's European elections it's Labour or the hard right. Don't let fear win here. pic.twitter.com/lBafANnlft — The Labour Party (@UKLabour) May 19, 2019 Maybe the problem’s that its seen a pro-Brexit party Over the weekend, there has been a flurry of apparently panicky messages coming out of the Labour Party to try to stop the seepage of support to the unequivocally pro-remain parties of the Lib Dems and the Greens. The above Tweet is the latest example. This is…

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The big post Euro election question is whether the Westminster polls will revert to normal?

The big post Euro election question is whether the Westminster polls will revert to normal?

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New .@YouGov – 17th May sees the CON+LAB aggregate drop below 50% CON 24% =1Lab : 24% -1BRX : 18%=LDem : 18% +2Grn : 6% -1UKIP : 2% =CHUK : 2% = — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2019 Above is the latest YouGov polling with the most extraordinary Westminster voting figures that I can recall in recent times. For four parties to be within six points of each other is extraordinary and for the CON+LAB aggregate not to exceed…

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With a CON leadership contest in the offing a look at what makes a good leader

With a CON leadership contest in the offing a look at what makes a good leader

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So the race is on, with likely as many contenders as at your average Grand National. Will it be a dyed in the wool Leaver? A born again or a politically convenient one? Blessed by the ERG? A Remainer? Cabinet member or backbencher? And will it even matter given the government’s tiny majority, at the DUP’s pleasure? Obsessed as they are by Brexit, Tory MPs and members have forgotten that a person’s stance on this perennially neuralgic issue is not…

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The latest Euro polls find BRX reinforcing its position with the LDs starting to nudge LAB out of second place

The latest Euro polls find BRX reinforcing its position with the LDs starting to nudge LAB out of second place

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New New @ComRes Euro voting intention for S Mirror / S Express finds CON on 9% seven points behind the LDs Brexit P 31% (+4)Lab 23% (-2)LD 16% (+2)Con 9% (-4)Grn 9% (-)CUK 4% (-2)SNP 4% (+1)UKIP 2% (-1)PC 1% (-) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 18, 2019 YouGov/Datapraxis poll for the Euros Best for Britain/Hope Not Hate puts LDs in second place with the Tories on fifthBREX 34LD 17LAB 15GRE 11CON 9CHUK 4UKIP 3SNP 3PC 1Other 3 Sample size…

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Oh the humiliation! CHUK not even listed as a runner on the Euros spread-betting markets

Oh the humiliation! CHUK not even listed as a runner on the Euros spread-betting markets

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So much is going on in UK politics at the moment that it is hard to recall that just a month ago the new Party formed by breakaway CON and LAB MPs, Change UK, was talking about it taking over the Lib Dems. From reports at the time it considered itself to be the powerful force and were treating Cable’s party as almost supplicants in any relationship. The new grouping didn’t contest the local elections on May 2nd but their…

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