Pete Buttigieg – the 37 year old former Rhodes Scholar now running 3rd in Iowa

Pete Buttigieg – the 37 year old former Rhodes Scholar now running 3rd in Iowa

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Probably worth a punt as a good long shot A new poll for next year’s Iowa caucuses is just out and puts a 37 year old former Rhodes Scholar from Indiana who you have probably never heard of in 3rd place. He’s Pete Buttigieg and the polling reflects the fact that over the last few days he’s been the hottest property on  US political TV shows. He’s telegenic, personable, articulate, gay and almost exactly half the age of front runners…

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With all the questions over TMay’s future punters it a tad less likely that she’ll be out soon

With all the questions over TMay’s future punters it a tad less likely that she’ll be out soon

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But it’s still a 67% chance that she’ll cease to be PM before Brexit There’s little doubt that just about the worst thing that Theresa May has done during her short Premiership was the broadcast to the nation five nights go when she appeared to blame Parliament for the problems in getting her  brexit deal approved. It was that apparent denial of the democratic process that has angered a lot within the House and outside. More and more people are…

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Viewcode on the chronicle of a bet foretold

Viewcode on the chronicle of a bet foretold

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It is 11pm on March 21st 2019 as I write this. Press releases from EUCO indicate that an unconditional extension is granted to the UK, rendering my bet on departing the EU on March 29th lost. It may be instructive therefore to examine the bet: its aim, placement, and implications. THE MOTIVE I bet from a variety of motives. There is the desire to know the world and measure myself against it, to commit to a prediction, simple greed, and…

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The “Very British Populism” of Theresa May

The “Very British Populism” of Theresa May

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May is (at least at the time of writing) our first populist PM. Whaaaat?!?!? A woman about whom it might be said that far from lighting up a room when she enters it, she trails gloom behind her, a populist? She has no charisma, no wit, no ability to charm or work a crowd, no followers, no chanting fans. She cannot speak – sometimes literally. She asserts, she repeats, she reprimands. She cannot persuade. In what sense then is she…

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It appears the cabinet has decided to take back control from Theresa May but can they decide who will be the one in control?

It appears the cabinet has decided to take back control from Theresa May but can they decide who will be the one in control?

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?BREAKING: A full blown cabinet coup is under way tonight to remove Theresa May as prime minister ? — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) March 23, 2019 I have spoken to 11 cabinet ministers today who want the prime minister to resign. They will confront her at cabinet on Monday — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) March 23, 2019 Cabinet coup plotters want to install an interim leader to deliver Brexit. There is good support for David Lidington but others pushing Michael Gove and…

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The indicative votes are the right question at the wrong time

The indicative votes are the right question at the wrong time

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Unless a WA is agreed, they could all be pointless Brexit means Brexit, Theresa May once said. Even at the time, the slogan was widely derided as meaningless and nebulous – though politically, there’s value in something that’s all things to all people. Indeed, Labour is engaging in an almost identical exercise at the moment, where almost nothing is ruled out but very little is explicitly ruled in: everything remains on the table, presumably in the hope that someone else…

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For Politicalbetting’s 15th anniversary today – a special cartoon from Marf

For Politicalbetting’s 15th anniversary today – a special cartoon from Marf

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Exactly 15 years ago today PB was launched Today PB celebrates it’s 15th birthday,  making it, I’d suggest, just about the longest surviving major political blog in the UK. We were up and operational before Guido, Conservative Home, Labour list and many of the other major political sites that we are familiar with today. I cannot recall a site that existed before we did that is still active. When PB was launched on March 23rd 2004 Tony Blair still had…

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As we approach the slightly later than planned day of reckoning

As we approach the slightly later than planned day of reckoning

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Has Britain finally reached a decision point? Still the outcome seems in doubt. Many others are writing about what comes next. But how did we get here? Failure is an orphan and no one is taking credit for the current mess. There is plenty of blame to go round though and we can dole out lavish helpings. First of all, we should note that it wasn’t inevitable that there would be a decision point now. No attempt was made by…

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