Warren moves above Sanders in the fight for the WH2020 Democratic nomination

Warren moves above Sanders in the fight for the WH2020 Democratic nomination

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Now she’s got to overhaul Joe Biden While all the focus in the UK has been on the CON leadership race there’ve been significant moves in the fight for the 2020 Democratic nomination. This comes as the many contenders, there are more than 20 of them, focus on the first national TV debates between the hopefuls later in the month. These are seen as the formal start of the campaign. Until now just about all the polling has had former…

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As Johnson launches CON membership polling finds his backers more likely to want a no deal Brexit and less emphasis on climate change

As Johnson launches CON membership polling finds his backers more likely to want a no deal Brexit and less emphasis on climate change

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  Would a PM Johnson try to please those who got him there? The above findings are from recent YouGov polling of CON members – the group that in in a week or so will decide on who should be the next party leader and, of course next PM. Tomorrow CON MPs hold the first round of voting in the process of whittling down to two names which will go to the membership in a postal ballot. The data from…

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On Betfair alone £3.5m has already been wagered on the CON leadership fight

On Betfair alone £3.5m has already been wagered on the CON leadership fight

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And a further £1.3m has been gambled on the next PM market Here is tonight’s chart showing the movement on the Betfair exchange next CON leader market where the total gambled has now topped £3.5m. There’s been very little significant movement and I don’t expect to see much change until Thursday evening when the result of the first CON MP ballot is announced. Johnson is still odds-on favourite and it will be interesting to see whether or not he has…

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Boris Johnson – the man who gets overstated by the polls

Boris Johnson – the man who gets overstated by the polls

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Don’t confuse high name recognition with popularity Above is a chart based on the final polls in the 2012 London Mayoral race when Johnson just squeezed to victory with a margin of three points. As can be seen none of the pollsters had the gap so close. Overstatement can happen when one of the people being the subject of the survey has very high name recognition. So treat any Boris polling numbers with a degree of scepticism. Mike Smithson Follow…

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Gove’s cocaine admission dominates just four of the front pages this morning

Gove’s cocaine admission dominates just four of the front pages this morning

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Could it be all history when CON MPs vote on Thursday? As an ex-newspaperman Michael Gove must know how the media’s attention can easily forget a story and even though it is just 2 days before the MP vote only four national papers are making his admission of taking cocaine their big story. My guess is that this will be the end of the coverage and his hope that he might be able to stay in the race could just…

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The CON leadership race is now down to ten with the first MP vote on Thursday

The CON leadership race is now down to ten with the first MP vote on Thursday

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Does BoJo’s Trappist strategy speak volumes about his fitness? So we now know the names of the CON MPs who will be on the first ballot. These are: Michael Gove Matt Hancock Mark Harper Jeremy Hunt Sajid Javid Boris Johnson Andrea Leadsom Esther McVey Dominic Raab Rory Stewart All of them bar one have been out today talking incessantly about their hopes and plans whilst at the same time finding a chance…

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The idea that BoJo has some magical means of reaching LAB or pro-Brexit voters isn’t backed up by his record

The idea that BoJo has some magical means of reaching LAB or pro-Brexit voters isn’t backed up by his record

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Let's not forget that LAB secured a 6.5% swing against Boris at GE2017. That hardly suggests he can reach voters that others can't pic.twitter.com/DpsvZahKoN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 10, 2019 At Uxbridge Johnson performed worse than the London Tory average One of the apparent great selling points for Johnson to his party is that somehow he has a means of reaching voters that other Tories do not have. Therefore, his supporters argue, he is the man to take the…

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