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The standout moment of the 2nd Democratic debate and campaign so far – Kamala Harris taking on Joe Biden on race

28/6/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

My immediate betting reaction after watching the second WH2020 Democratic debate was to place a bet on California Senator, Kamala Harris for the nomination. Her confrontation with ex-VP, Joe Biden, seen in the clip above, is the one that is being focused on by the US media and will surely be repeated time and time again. As can be seen it was personal and powerful and demonstrated her powerful communication skills. It also exposed the frailty of the front runner…

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Corbyn plummets to record low in latest Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings

27/6/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Hardly gives confidence if there is an early election With all the focus on the CON leadership we haven’t looked at the official opposition for a while. Well the latest Ipsos-MORI polling gives us a peg. One thing this pollster has been doing for decades is always asking leader rating questions in its regular political poll. Today’s numbers show just 18% of the sample saying they’re satisfied with the LAB leader and 75% saying they’re not sets something of a…

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The most accurate pollster at the Euros has Hunt rated better than Boris when compared with Corbyn

27/6/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

New Ipsos-MORI focuses, inevitably, on the CON leadership race. These are some key findings: Both Hunt and Johnson have improved since May in terms of the proportion of people agreeing they ‘have what it takes to be a good Prime Minister.’ 31% agree that Hunt ‘has what it takes’ (+12 points since May) and 34% agree that Johnson ‘has what it takes’ (+9 points). However, more disagree that Johnson has what it takes (53%) than Jeremy Hunt (42%). This means that overall…

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Warren consolidates her position as the main challenger to Joe Biden in the first of the Democratic nominee debates

27/6/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Beto failed to help his bid Overnight we have had the first of the Democratic debates held in Miami in the possible swing state of Florida which the party needs to win next year if it is to have a chance of beating Trump. The Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren , had a big boost before the debate started with a new Economist YouGov poll having her at 19% just 6 points behind the front-runner Joe Biden. This is the closest…

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Johnson edges back to being an even stronger favourite on the Betfair exchange

26/6/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange His “bus painting hobby” has moved the agenda on Maybe because we are getting closer to the ballot packs going out and Johnson appears to have survived the Camberwell apartment crisis but we are now seeing a move back to him and away from Hunt in the next CON leader betting. Essentially there’s little more in the story and Johnson’s “painting model buses” interview, however bizarre, has been his dead cat on…

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YouGov finds just 28% wanting a no deal against 43% wanting to remain

26/6/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

I like this YouGov approach to discerning public opinion on Brexit – set out the four main option and get people to rank them. The results, which have just been published, are in the table above. The numbers broadly speak for themselves but notice the gender divide. Women are less likely to make no deal their top choice than men. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Tonight the fight for the WH2020 Democratic nomination moves to the debate stage with Biden leading in the betting followed by Warren

26/6/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Tonight in the US the fight for the Democratic nomination for next year’s White House Race moves to a new stage with the first TV debate between the wannabe nominees. Because so many figures within the party have put their names forward the debate is going to be spread over two nights and tonight’s line up includes Elizabeth Warren heading a group of ten. Joe Biden, the current favourite, will feature on…

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Johnson appears to be planning to ignore parliament if it sought to block a no deal Brexit

25/6/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Dangerous stuff from the wannabe PM Re-reading Johnson interview, he appears to imply he would ignore parliament if it voted against no deal "It would be up to the prime minister of the day. I have myself to decide under the current terms of the extension that we have to apply for such an extension" pic.twitter.com/eGxEqdFsfv — Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) June 25, 2019