Two new polls this afternoon with very different shares for LAB and the Greens

Two new polls this afternoon with very different shares for LAB and the Greens

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If LAB had been doing better at recent elections then you might say that Survation has got this right. But Corbyn’s party had a miserable set of locals in May followed up by dreadful Euro elections three weeks later when they slipped down to just 13.6% and could not even maintain position as top party in London. They did, of course, hold Peterborough in June but with a share down 17% on GE2017. At the Euro election YouGov got the…

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The threat to Obamacare, not Trump’s Tweets and tantrums, could be what costs him WH2020

The threat to Obamacare, not Trump’s Tweets and tantrums, could be what costs him WH2020

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RealClearPolitics As we saw at the Midterms eroding what’s become an entitlement is politically dangerous I think that it is very easy for those of us who are engrossed with politics, that’s just about all those who follow PB, to pay too much attention to the personalities and not to the substance of what’s involved. Last November the Democrats did remarkably well in the midterm elections and now have a rock-solid majority in the House. Unfortunately the Senate seats they…

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And now the Tory Brecon bar chart to try to beat off the Brexit party

And now the Tory Brecon bar chart to try to beat off the Brexit party

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From a Tory campaign AD Brecon & Radnorshire by-election Boris’s first electoral test – getting more by-election votes than Farage It might be a too big an ask to expect the Tories to retain the Brecon and Radnorshire seat where the by-election takes place on August 1st but the party would dearly love to win more votes than Farage’s Brexit Party. The circumstances, the fact that their candidate is the former MP who was deprived of his seat following the…

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What it takes to be a good leader

What it takes to be a good leader

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At one of his RoryforLeader rallies, Rory Stewart paid a heartfelt tribute to David Gauke and the three things he learnt about leadership from him. (1) Gauke communicated his values to his team, which they respected him for; (2) he genuinely listened to them and their arguments; and (3) finally, he had courage and was willing to make tough choices. It is rare to see politicians pay genuine tribute to each other, at least while they are still practising.  Rarer…

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The money goes on an early exit for Corbyn

The money goes on an early exit for Corbyn

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Now 6/4 that he’ll go this year Corbyn is receiving backlash today following last night’s BBC Panorama documentary on Labour anti-Semitism. And bookmakers have slashed his odds of stepping down – or being pushed – from the party. Paddy Power make it 6/4 that he leaves Labour this year, in from 4/1, or 8/1 from 16/1 that he is forced to depart before the end of the month. I am not convinced. Under his leadership he has totally entrenched his…

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Might Trump be impeached after leaving office?

Might Trump be impeached after leaving office?

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Losing in 2020 might just be the start of the game Obscure corners of the US constitution were made for delving into, particularly when they interact with a scenario which is not wholly implausible: in this case, a post-presidency impeachment. “Hang on”, you might say; “doesn’t impeachment, if successfully carried, involve the loss of office? In which case it would be pointless for someone who’s already gone?”. Yes, it does – but that’s not all it does, which is what…

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Darroch shows he’s a true diplomat and resigns

Darroch shows he’s a true diplomat and resigns

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BREAK: Darroch resigns. I thought he’d have to go. Position untenable if totally frozen out of White House pic.twitter.com/inx3oz1h55 — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) July 10, 2019 Trump’s Tweets made his position untenable Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet