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The good news Johnson continues with a 42% CON share from Kantar Until today's Kantar poll is broadly supported by other pollsters we should treat it as an outlier pic.twitter.com/j2b5Z1IDnP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 21, 2019 More from Kantar Which of the following scenarios do you favour most?Leave No Deal: 23Leave TM Deal: 9Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13Remain/Revoke A50: 33DK: 22 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 21, 2019 But voters want the final deal to be put to…

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New @YouGov poll for the Times has little changeCON 30 -1LAB 21 -1LD 20-1BREX 14=GRN+113-14 Aug — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 20, 2019 None of the suggested candidates to be temporary PM in a government of national unity are very popular choices with the public:Ken Clarke – 25% good choice for PMHarriet Harman – 19%Jeremy Corbyn – 15%Jo Swinson – 13%Caroline Lucas – 13%https://t.co/ZLU6wG6N8n pic.twitter.com/odT3oThdpB — YouGov (@YouGov) August 20, 2019

Chart of Betfair Exchange from Betdata.io We’ve discussed the timing of the next general election a fair bit on PB and my guess is that we’ll return to it quite often in the next few weeks. It might not be as easy for a general election to be called as many seem to think. For a general election to take place the Fixed Term Parliaments Act makes it a requirement that two thirds of the entire House of Commons, 433…

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Johnson’s challenge: not triggering off a new round of troubles In a post here last year I highlighted an article by John McTernan, Tony Blair’s former director of political operations, which sought to set out clearly why the Northern Ireland border has been such an issue in the Brexit negotiations. He wrote: “.. there is no concession that can be given on the backstop or, as it should properly be considered, Northern Ireland. The fundamental problem here is not the…

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2/n There were *a lot* of very expensive pledges in his speech:– Free university tuition– Renationalisation of key industries– "Ending austerity" i.e. major increases in day-to-day spending How will this all be paid for? — David Herdson (@DavidHerdson) August 19, 2019 4/n There is a lot of work to be done / explained in Labour's policies – are they up to doing so? Can they explain, simply, what "[We'll] give the workforce a 10% stake in large companies; paying a…

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