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The Conservatives secured a thumping mandate at the general election, getting 365 MPs in the new Parliament, up from the 317 that Theresa May managed in 2017. This increase of 48, however, actually masks a much greater turnover. 109 of those 365 MPs were not in the last Parliament. More than one sixth of the new Parliament is comprised of new Conservative MPs. Most of these MPs are relatively unknown.  They will, however, play a critical role in this and…

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Survation LAB members’ poll for Labour LIst has Long-Bailey 42% Starmer 37% Jess Phillips 9% Lisa Nandy 7% This is very different from the YouGov members p — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 15, 2020 Starmer dropping sharply – RLP moving up in the Betfair betting following tonight’s Survation leadership poll with RLB ahead. Chart @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/7ERmOCCtvC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 15, 2020 Note on methodology from the Survation LAB leadership poll pic.twitter.com/Mv8u1Ruv1b — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 15, 2020

How valid are the findings now? A fair amount has happened in the LAB leadership race since the YouGov members’ poll which was carried out over Christmas. The big number that people recall is that after six rounds of lower preference distribution Starmer was beating RLB by 61% to 39%. The first preferences were: Stamer 31% Long-Bailey 20% Phillips 11% Cooper 7% Lewis 7% Thornberry 6% Nandy 5% Since then Cooper has not entered the race and Lewis failed to…

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The debate is over and the general verdict is that none of the contenders had a standout performance. The Betfair market shows Buttigieg getting the biggest uplift and squeezing past Biden. What was interesting is that those who’ve seen all the debates seemed to be taking a different view than those just new to this one. The view of Buttigieg was that he was just like he has been seen before. Newcomers to watching the debates seemed more impressed This…

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Lisa Nandy has just secured the backing of National Union of Mineworkers, which is big get – there’s also speculation she could get support of the GMB https://t.co/y0ZF7Yg5dj — Jane Merrick (@janemerrick23) January 14, 2020 I am sure that those PBers who gamble will forgive me for getting a little bit excited by the above tweet that Nandy has secured the backing of the National Union of mineworkers. Now I know that we don’t have mines any more than and…

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This is our first look at the Corbyn successor betting since it entered its second stage – the battle for nominations from constituency parties, and affiliated organisations a segment that includes the trade unions. This will continue for more than a month before the ballot packs go out to the party’s selectorate. Contenders have to reach a certain level of nominations to make it to the postal vote. As the chart shows there has been a little bit of levelling…

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And this was most pronounced in the North and the Midlands If the Opinium survey on the day of the General Election is accurate then the departure of Corbyn, as will happen on April 4th with the new Labour leader, should have a significant impact on the party’s recovery. You can see why Corbyn loyalists anxious to avoid the blame pouring on the their man should want to stick with the theory that LAB had its worst result since 1935…

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The Iowa caucuses can play such important part in the nomination process that I thought that the above short feature from CNN was worth putting up simply to explain a political process that really is without parallel in the UK and for that matter in most of the US. What is extraordinary is the seriousness that many Iowans take their role of being the first State to decide to the extent that on a cold February evening they are ready…

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