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How valid are the findings now? A fair amount has happened in the LAB leadership race since the YouGov members’ poll which was carried out over Christmas. The big number that people recall is that after six rounds of lower preference distribution Starmer was beating RLB by 61% to 39%. The first preferences were: Stamer 31% Long-Bailey 20% Phillips 11% Cooper 7% Lewis 7% Thornberry 6% Nandy 5% Since then Cooper has not entered the race and Lewis failed to…

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The debate is over and the general verdict is that none of the contenders had a standout performance. The Betfair market shows Buttigieg getting the biggest uplift and squeezing past Biden. What was interesting is that those who’ve seen all the debates seemed to be taking a different view than those just new to this one. The view of Buttigieg was that he was just like he has been seen before. Newcomers to watching the debates seemed more impressed This…

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Lisa Nandy has just secured the backing of National Union of Mineworkers, which is big get – there’s also speculation she could get support of the GMB https://t.co/y0ZF7Yg5dj — Jane Merrick (@janemerrick23) January 14, 2020 I am sure that those PBers who gamble will forgive me for getting a little bit excited by the above tweet that Nandy has secured the backing of the National Union of mineworkers. Now I know that we don’t have mines any more than and…

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This is our first look at the Corbyn successor betting since it entered its second stage – the battle for nominations from constituency parties, and affiliated organisations a segment that includes the trade unions. This will continue for more than a month before the ballot packs go out to the party’s selectorate. Contenders have to reach a certain level of nominations to make it to the postal vote. As the chart shows there has been a little bit of levelling…

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And this was most pronounced in the North and the Midlands If the Opinium survey on the day of the General Election is accurate then the departure of Corbyn, as will happen on April 4th with the new Labour leader, should have a significant impact on the party’s recovery. You can see why Corbyn loyalists anxious to avoid the blame pouring on the their man should want to stick with the theory that LAB had its worst result since 1935…

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The Iowa caucuses can play such important part in the nomination process that I thought that the above short feature from CNN was worth putting up simply to explain a political process that really is without parallel in the UK and for that matter in most of the US. What is extraordinary is the seriousness that many Iowans take their role of being the first State to decide to the extent that on a cold February evening they are ready…

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Pidcock surely would have put up a better fight than RLB At 2:30 this afternoon the first stage of Labour’s election contest will be over. At the moment there are questions over whether Clive Lewis or Emily Thornberry will actually get to the magical 22. If they don’t then they are out. A big feature of this first week has been the less than convincing campaign by RLB the favoured candidate of Corbyn and McDonnell. From her declaring that in…

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As can be seen from the chart we have a new favourite in the betting for the Democratic nomination. The oldest man in the race, the Socialist senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, has now edged above Joe Biden in the betting to become the latest favourite. This has been driven by the latest set of polls from the early primary States where Sanders looks set to win both the Iowa caucuses on February 3rd and the New Hampshire primary the…

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