Amber Warnings – What might be the signals that all is not well in a democracy?

Amber Warnings – What might be the signals that all is not well in a democracy?

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How much should we be concerned about extremism? Just as it is easy to be complacent about a country’s immunity to extremism (“If it didn’t happen before, it won’t happen now”), it is all too easy for any suggested change to the existing constitutional or political set up to be described as the first step towards whichever form of extremism most worries the commentator, especially if from a political opponent.  This focus on who is behind a proposal – rather than on what it…

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Latest PM favourability polling from Ipsos MORI has Johnson’s numbers at a post-GE2019 low

Latest PM favourability polling from Ipsos MORI has Johnson’s numbers at a post-GE2019 low

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Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Pulse, just out, shows an increase in the the numbers viewing Johnson unfavourably compared to just after the election. While 41% had a negative opinion of Mr Johnson after the election in December, this has risen closer to half of Britons now (47%), giving him an overall net favourability score of -13 compared to -8 in late January . The pollster, which has been carrying out leader ratings for four decades, noted: “Having a gradual decline…

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The coronavirus: Trump bans all travel to Europe for a month from tomorrow excluding the UK

The coronavirus: Trump bans all travel to Europe for a month from tomorrow excluding the UK

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In a televised statement from the Oval Office on the coronavirus crisis Trump has annouced that a ban on flights between the US and Europe from tomorrow. There is just one exception – the UK. According to the New York Times this was one of a number of “strong but necessary” actions designed to impede what he described as “horrible infection”. This was a “foreign virus” that had been “seeded” in the US because the EU had “failed to take…

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In the US levels of concern about the coronavirus are dependent and whether you are a Democrat or a Republican

In the US levels of concern about the coronavirus are dependent and whether you are a Democrat or a Republican

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61% of Dems say they’re worried compared with 37% of Republicans I find the gap here qute extraordinary because it is no way replicated in the UK. That Republicans are that much less concerned suggests that Trump’s controversial apporach is being followed by many of his backers. Mike Smithson

Political rights and wrongs

Political rights and wrongs

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Worrying signs of moves towards illiberalism Opposition parties often complain about the unfairness of the rules of the political game. Until they win a majority. Even the Tories have sung this song. Given their attachment to FPTP – which has delivered Tory governments for 45 out of the last 75 years – they have presented self-interest in more technical (unfair boundaries) or high-flown terms. It was Lord Hailsham who popularised the phrase “elective dictatorship” to describe the ability of a…

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Biden moves to 93% chance on Betfair after walloping Bernie in Michigan – a state won by Sanders at WH2016

Biden moves to 93% chance on Betfair after walloping Bernie in Michigan – a state won by Sanders at WH2016

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Overnight we have seen another terrible night for Bernie Sanders in the latest range of state primaries. The biggest was Michigan which was taken by Sandesr against Hillary Clinton four years ago and was the first big indicator that all was not well well in the Clinton campaign. Trump then went on to take Michigan by a whisker in the general election itself. Biden’s current margin there over Sanders in Michigan is 18%. This together with what he did a…

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Biden goes into tonight’s primaries as an 88% chance on Betfair for the nomination

Biden goes into tonight’s primaries as an 88% chance on Betfair for the nomination

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After his sensational change of fortune just ten days ago ex-VP, 77-year old Joe Biden heads into tonight’s round of primaries. The one that will be most watched is Michigan where Bernie Sanders pulled off a sensational victory of Clinton at WH2016. The polling, this time, is heavily for Biden. Michigan will be a key target for the Dems in Novermber. Amongst the other states tomight are Mississippi abd Missouri where Biden should do well. An interesting one which Bernie…

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