And so to the first leaders’ TV debate of GE2019 – without a remainer
Watch live on PB from 8pm GMT
Given that Beaconsfield went Remain the odds on the Tory look too short and Grieve too long
The latest Beaconsfield betting Oddschecker I’m planning a short series of posts on the betting in interesting seats and number one, for me, is Beaconsfield where the former MP and prominent anti-Brexiteer, Dominic Grieve, is trying to hold on. At GE2017 Grieve won with a whopping 65.3% of the vote nearly 44% shead of LAB in second place. Back at the pre-coalition GE2010 the LDs came second with just under 20%. Grieve’s helped by the fact that the LDs have…
Johnson starts debate day with punters rating his chances of a majority at 66%
My betting strategy for tonight One thing’s for sure – tonight’s debate will either confirm or raise doubts about Johnson’s chances of leading his party to an overall majority on December 12th. There will be a lot of betting on this market tonight. The Tory record with debates is not that strong. Cameron was taken aback by Nick Clegg being deemed to “winner” of the first TV debate in April 2010 and this prompted the betting market to mark down…
Why Johnson’s TV debate strategy could be a mistake
Great thread from the New Stateman’s Stephen Bush Two. Ignore everything you think about the candidates and their abilities: head-to-head is harder for the incumbent PM, because they are the only one with a record to defend. https://t.co/7VWTL4KXWF — Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) November 18, 2019 Four. Even if form goes out the window and Johnson wins, the event itself is a big "Lib Dems CAN'T win here!" klaxon which from the polls is not a great message for Johnson to…
LAB and the LDs slipping on the Commons seats spread markets – Tories powering upwards
SportingIndex And on Betfair CON Majority reaches record high
A 14% CON lead would give Johnson the margin to stuff the ERG
Survation. on behalf of Good Morning Britain. 18.11.2019 Details and tables here: https://t.co/4TIUmWqHOe pic.twitter.com/1dLh85npjw — Survation. (@Survation) November 18, 2019 Survation adds to the LDs misery A new poll was published by Survation overnight and as can be seen the Lib Dems are the worst hit down 4 points. This means that the last two polls to be published, Deltapoll is the other one, have had very poor news for Jo swinson’s party. Interestingly these two polls have been from…
Buttigieg now nine points clear in Iowa
CNN The big WH2020 news over the weekend was a CNN/Des Moines Register poll showing the 37 year old Mayor Pete surge to take a substantial lead over Biden. Warren and Sanders. What’s significant here is that the pollster Ann Selzer has built up a formidable reputation over the years over the accuracy of her Iowa Caucuses polling. This is a very difficult to poll because it is hard to get a representative sample of the 200k+ Iowans who will…
The number of Tory MPs elected on December 12th will determine what type of Brexit we get, if we get Brexit
As the late United States President, LBJ once said “Politics is the ability to count”. Currently the polls and the betting markets have a Conservative Majority as the most likely outcome, but these are fallible; the manifestoes are not out yet and the nation may not be comfortable with the idea of a large Tory Majority Gov’t. In this thread I will examine the numerology of the next election working through various scenarios: First up 326 + CON MPs –…