About all the site problems. I did a server upgrade, and Vanilla refused to play nicely with the new server. So I rolled it back… and Vanilla refused to play nicely with the old server either. 🙁 You can access the comments here. I’m communicating with Vanilla, and I’m sure we’ll get it sorted soon. Thanks, Robert
Turns out 52% of the country are wise. https://t.co/Ais2UKHVqr — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 23, 2019 52% of voters are correct is not a sentence I expected to write but here we are. This finding isn’t a surprise, after all the star of the film, Bruce Willis, has himself said Die Hard is definitely not a Christmas film, after all film released in July 1988 can hardly be categorised as a Christmas film can it? TSE
In 1997 Labour swept to a landslide victory sweeping all parts of Britain. In Scotland winning 45.6% of the vote and 77.8% of the seats. In England winning 43.5% of the votes and 62.0% of the seats. One of Blair’s first and most consequential acts was to bring in devolution to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland but left English laws controlled by Parliament with no answer to the West Lothian Question. Supposedly a decision that was intended to “kill…
We have not had a poll of LAB members since last July so the YouGov chart above is based on the latest data available. Since then, of course, three of those senior party figures tested by the firm are no longer possible runners. Tom Watson has quit being an MP, Laura Pidcock lost her seat at on December 12th while John McDonnell has made his intentions clear. Note that in the polling each potential leader was tested separately but it…
Andy Welsh Flickr Time for the reckoning on my long-term calls At the start of the decade, I asked what politics in the UK would look like ten years hence. That time has now arrived, so let’s look at how I did and, beyond that, how anyone could have done. Predicting a few weeks ahead can be a hazardous business; predicting a decade into the future would be foolhardy in the extreme which is probably why observant readers will notice…
My Ladbrokes betting slip Back at the end of November longstanding PBer, Philip Thompson, wrote a header here suggesting that the 200/1 then available on Rishi Sunak for next CON leader was a great value bet. I was one of a number on the site who had a little flutter taking the 250/1 on Sunak after Ladbrokes boosted the odds. Clearly this is going to be a long term bet but I’m encouraged that the latest odds are now 25/1…
Why didn’t bellwether Bedford swing? Even though it was a fortnight ago I’ve still not found an answer to what appeared to be an inexplicable outcome in my seat of Bedford. This is a constituency that at GE2010, GE2015, GE2017 and the referendum voted most of all 650 seats in line with the country as a whole. Longstanding PB regular, Andy JS, highlighted the seat’s status before GE2019 and certainly on hearing the exit poll many, including me, assumed that…
Wikipedia I don’t want to move on from the general election before just looking back at the performance of the pollsters. This election was important to them following the disappointing final surveys that we saw in 2015 and 2017 when with one or two notable exceptions the polls were some way off. Note that national polling for Westminster elections generally takes place on a GB basis with Northern Ireland being excluded. So the comparisons should be made with what happened…