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Just before the Christmas break the Commons library published its analysis of the December general election and the above are some of the sets of data that relate to the main national parties. Clearly the seats of former Speaker Bercow and the current one Hoyle are going to appear in the lists because the main parties do not contest them. So Buckingham had its first main party contest since 2005 while Chorley had a limited range of candidates this time….

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Working through lots of candidates and lots of considerations Calling the Labour leadership contest is hard, to me at least. Not only do we not yet know who’s going to stand but working out what the key considerations will be with the relevant voters – at both nomination stage and in the election proper – is an exercise in second-guessing on multiple levels. We don’t even know when the election will start for sure: it might be next week but…

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The chart shows the Real Clear Politics average for the President’s approval ratings which over the decades have been a good pointer to electoral outcomes. In an analysis Taegan Goddard of Politicalwire notes that only Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush had periods when the majority of American disapproved of them and both failed to be re-elected. Maybe Trump can change things in his final year but maybe be won’t. As we saw in the midterms voters are very…

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We are only weeks away from the Iowa caucuses – the first state primary in the prolonged process in which the Democrats will decide who shall be the nominee to fight Trump next November. The latest move from second betting favourite Bernie Sanders (78yo) is to step up the attacks on the front runner Jo Biden (77yo). In an interview with the Washington Post, Bernie sought to undermine what is the ex-VP’s perceived electability. “Sanders said that Biden brings ‘a…

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Those who have followed PB for four years and more will remember some of the tips from Labour insider, Henry G Manson, and I am amongst a number who have benefitted from them. The big news is that Henry G gas resurfaced with this post on the previous thread: Happy New Year. There has been a bit market reaction to the early YouGov poll which has created value elsewhere. At this stage of a leadership contest you have to weigh…

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A guest slot from Fishing 2019 was obviously a very turbulent year in British politics.  Individuals, parties and the political system itself were tested almost to destruction.  But sometimes events that appear a disaster at the time can, with a decade or two’s hindsight, seem like a triumph.  The Conservatives losing the 1945 election, for example, gave the Labour Party the responsibility for post-war austerity and allowed the Tories to regenerate in opposition.  They then dominated the 1950s and early 1960s.  Again, for Labour, 1992…

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