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This is how The Scotsman is reporting the latest moves in Edinburgh: The First Minister is set to battle for the survival of her political career next week after the Scottish Conservatives announced plans to push for a no-confidence vote in the SNP leader on Wednesday. Douglas Ross’ party said that will give Ms Sturgeon a “last chance to resign” on Tuesday for allegedly misleading Parliament. If she does not do so, the party will proceed with a vote of…

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The biggest current political betting market that I have an interest (I’ve £20 on Sunak at 250/1) is who is going to succeed Johnson as prime minister. The Betdata.io chart above shows what has happened on Betfair over the past 12-month and ask can be seen Keir starmer was favourite for a period but most of the time it is the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, who has been in the top slot. So much in this market depends…

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For ,me the poll finding of the day is this from Ipsos – a question that is rarely asked – Who would make the “most capable PM” when the options are the incumbent and his Chancellor. It’s notable that Starmer trails both of them but in questions like this being in power generally gives a bonus – although for several periods last year Starmer was being rated as Best MP over Johnson. . The thing at the moment is that…

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Ever since YouGov’s post budget poll showing a 13% Tory lead was published it has been suggested, including by me, that it was possibly an outlier. Other polls have been published in the meantime, one with the lead at just 2% and none of them of them were on the scale of the YouGov survey. Well this afternoon we’ve got the follow-up poll from the firm and experienced poll watchers, like in the Tweets above, are highlighting the fieldwork date…

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The above Ordnance Survey map shows the boundaries of the Hartlepool Westminster constituency which is set to be the first by-election of the 2019 Parliament and the first since both Starmer and Johnson became leaders of their parties. It is in a part of the world where I started my journalistic career and which I know very well. Indeed in a month’s time, assuming the lockdown easing goes to plan, I will be driving through the constituency on my way…

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Back in 2004 when this site was only a few months old we had the first PB Westminster by-election which happened to be at Hartlepool on Teesside. It turned out to be quite a big betting event with LAB holding off against a stiff challenge from the LDs. Now, as Ladbrokes have it, the Tories are strong odds on favourite to take the seat which would be a remarkable achievement for a party in government. For since 1945 the WW2…

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