The reason the totals are showing a decline is because of local boundary changes and the application of a government policy to reduce the overall number of councillors and council wards . What’s up for grabs this May What happened in 2016 and 2017 when these were last up Notice the incredible Tory performance in May 2017. Alas for TMay this was not to be repeated in the general election in June 2017. These were just some of the slides…
I wrote a thread header a few weeks ago which covered the correlation between opinion poll voting intentions (VI) and general election results. I found that there is a strong relationship between VI and general election results, though the small size of the sample of eleven general elections on which I based the work meant that my conclusion was tentative. Given that we have a large number of council and other polls coming up in May, I thought it was…
For ,me the poll finding of the day is this from Ipsos – a question that is rarely asked – Who would make the “most capable PM” when the options are the incumbent and his Chancellor. It’s notable that Starmer trails both of them but in questions like this being in power generally gives a bonus – although for several periods last year Starmer was being rated as Best MP over Johnson. . The thing at the moment is that…
Ever since YouGov’s post budget poll showing a 13% Tory lead was published it has been suggested, including by me, that it was possibly an outlier. Other polls have been published in the meantime, one with the lead at just 2% and none of them of them were on the scale of the YouGov survey. Well this afternoon we’ve got the follow-up poll from the firm and experienced poll watchers, like in the Tweets above, are highlighting the fieldwork date…
The above Ordnance Survey map shows the boundaries of the Hartlepool Westminster constituency which is set to be the first by-election of the 2019 Parliament and the first since both Starmer and Johnson became leaders of their parties. It is in a part of the world where I started my journalistic career and which I know very well. Indeed in a month’s time, assuming the lockdown easing goes to plan, I will be driving through the constituency on my way…
Back in 2004 when this site was only a few months old we had the first PB Westminster by-election which happened to be at Hartlepool on Teesside. It turned out to be quite a big betting event with LAB holding off against a stiff challenge from the LDs. Now, as Ladbrokes have it, the Tories are strong odds on favourite to take the seat which would be a remarkable achievement for a party in government. For since 1945 the WW2…
Those seats are up this May Yesterday I attended, online. what was one of the annual political events before the pandemic – the briefing on the coming May elections by the Tory peer, Lord Hayward. There were no elections last year and in England and Wales there have not been any local by-elections. So in large parts of Britain in the first week in May we’ll have the first chance to test the political climate based on real votes being…
As well as the widely publicised approval and voting numbers in the Opinium poll at the weekend was the above range of questions on how Johnson and Starmer are perceived over a range of different areas. in order to show a comparison in a simplified manner I have taken the net ratings for each of them and then worked out the difference. So on whether the two are decisive or not I have taken the net figure for Johnson, minus…