What some Trump backing Republican donors get told if they don’t make their gifts recurring ones

What some Trump backing Republican donors get told if they don’t make their gifts recurring ones

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Last week there was a big report in the New York Times about some of the high-pressure fundraising tactics of the Trump campaign. A feature that got special attention was that many donors who thought they had made one-off donations in the run up to WH2020 suddenly found that this had been deemed to be a weekly donation and money was being sucked out of their banks every 7-days. In many cases this had led to hardship. Apparently it was…

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Call Me. Dave.

Call Me. Dave.

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As non-apologies masquerading as apologies go, Cameron’s must win some sort of Missing The Point Award. Apparently, his correspondence with the Chancellor should have been more formal, as if what’s concerning people is him texting rather than taking out his pen and Basildon Bond paper when asking Ministers to look kindly on his employer, Greensill. Still, with the newly announced inquiry into his actions – though it must surely also be into the actions of current Cabinet Ministers when they…

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Just 13 of the 31 local seats in Hartlepool on Westminster by-election day have Tory contenders

Just 13 of the 31 local seats in Hartlepool on Westminster by-election day have Tory contenders

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As we all know the Hartlepool Westminster by-election is taking place on May 6th – the same day as the locals throughout England and the Scottish and Welsh Parliament elections. Nominations have now closed for the locals and these show that of the 31 council seats up for election in Hartlepool three weeks on Thursday there are just 13 CON candidates. Now I don’t know what to read into that, and there maybe local factors at play, but it is…

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Florida Governor Ron DeStantis looks a good bet for the GOP WH2024 nomination

Florida Governor Ron DeStantis looks a good bet for the GOP WH2024 nomination

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He’s currently 6/1 second favourite behind Trump I’ve just had a small punt on DeSantis after reading this in the Wall Street Journal: Mr. DeSantis has burnished his brand with a Covid-19 response that has enthused the voter base of former President Donald Trump while—in Florida, at least—also impressing the kind of moderate and suburban voters who turned away from Mr. Trump in 2020..As the GOP looks to rebuild after losing the presidential election last year, that formula could give…

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More than 80 days into the job and Biden’s approval ratings stay very strong

More than 80 days into the job and Biden’s approval ratings stay very strong

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The above chart from Nate Silver’s site show how remarkable strong Biden’s approval ratings have been since becoming President on January 20th. I’ve got a little bet on that he’ll still be in the 50-55% range on his 100 day in office on January 20th. To put them into context during his entire four years as President Trump never made it above 50%. Of course Biden came to power at a critical stage and his government has overseen a massive…

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Johnson-Starmer approval ratings – the great regional divide

Johnson-Starmer approval ratings – the great regional divide

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The above chart has been prepared from the latest Opinium poll which came out for the Observer this evening. Rather than look at the voting numbers which show the Tories with an overall 9% lead what I am focusing on here is how the approval ratings for the two men match up region by region. As can be seen Boris is doing well getting better net figures than Starmer in most of England outside of London but the Labour leader…

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Parliament must return in person and permanently

Parliament must return in person and permanently

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Impressions be damned: governance is even more important Parliament will return from its Easter recess on Monday to allow MPs to make tributes to the late Duke of Edinburgh. It is right that they can do so. Most, however, will continue to dial in via videoconferencing; few will be in the chamber. That is no longer right. Politics is an intensely human business and proximity is power. One reason that the government has been able to act as if there…

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If Biden doesn’t run at WH2024 Buttigieg should be as strong a nomination contender as Harris

If Biden doesn’t run at WH2024 Buttigieg should be as strong a nomination contender as Harris

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Currently he’s a 4% betting chance while she’s a 35% one There seems to be a widespread assumption in the betting that should Joe Biden not be running for the 2024 nomination then Kamala Harris will almost automatically be the chosen one. This is reflected in the betting odds where I believe Buttigieg is under priced and Harris is overpriced. A big reason, I would suggest, is that Buttigieg’s role as US Transportation Secretary is going to give him significantly…

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