Is this Trump’s legacy – Republican voters significantly less likely to follow COVID guidelines than Democratic ones?
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As far as punters are concerned the Tories are set to lose their majority at the next election
The Bedata.io chart above shows what’s been happening on the Betfair next general election overall majority betting market. As can be seen a CON majority, now a 34% chance, has risen to its highest level in a year while a LAB majority has dropped to 22%. My guess is that the recent moves are in response to the positive polling news for the Tories. The thing I find remarkable is that even with one poll having the Tories 13% ahead…
With 7 weeks to go before Scotland votes the latest three polls find voters opposed to another IndyRef
The Wikipedia table shows the last few months of polling in Scotland on having another IndyRef similar to the one that voted NO in September 2014. For more than a year all the polls showed a desire for a fresh vote until the past two weeks. We will have to see if other Scottish polls follow a similar pattern but there is little doubt that the question of whether there should be another IndyRef looks sets the most important issue…
Until the YouGov CON 13% lead is supported by other polling then it should be treated as an outlier
It is now nearly a week since we got YouGov’s shock 13% CON lead poll which was pretty much out of kilter with other polls before it and we have not had another voting survey to indicate whether this pointed to a new trend or was simply an outlier. Normally in the weekends after budgets we get a number of polls but, alas, that has not happened and the YouGov 13% lead which was published last Thursday continues to be…
Given what everybody is talking about it we probably need a thread on this
I had not planned to run a thread on tonight’s big interview but this is what everybody seems to be talking about so here it is. Like many, I guess, I follow the affairs of the Royal Family from the standpoint of Netfiix’s hit series “The Crown” – so about 20 years behind. and it is going to be many years before that will cover Prince Harry’s marriage to Meghan and all that followed. I thought the point made by…
The Boris numbers in these comparisons with Rishi and Keir should be worrying for the Tories
The above YouGov polling came out last week but got overshadowed by the budget and I think they should be highlighted. For in all the comparisons listed Johnson trails behind Sunak and in all but two of them Starmer as well. The competence split where the Chancellor has a huge net lead over the PM is very striking. Just 34% regard the latter as competent compared with 52% who don’t. None of the three come out of the trustworthy question…
As schools in England re-open CON members give EdSec Williamson a MINUS 44% rating
A former Lib Dem anti-monarchy campaigner tops the list I always like this monthly table from ConsrrvativeHome which seeks to show what party members think of the Cabinet. This is one area where the EdSec Gavin Williamson has really struggled and as can be seen he is down to a net minus rating of 43.6% in the latest survey. These are terrible figures and must cast doubt his political future. In the betting Williamson is favourite to be the next…
Things to look forward to in 2021: An exciting by-election
Yorkshire, once again, may prove to be the most important place in the United Kingdom, if not the world. In May there’s a plethora of elections that will have profound implications for the United Kingdom, Scotland’s election is likely to be primus inter pares but the result with the most seismic changes could be the aftershocks of the election for Mayor of West Yorkshire. The 1/10 favourite is Labour’s Tracy Babin who has said if she wins she will resign…