politicalbetting.com

This was deisgned to operate with both the UK and the Irish Republic in the EU As is being widely there is a huge impasse between London and Brussels over the position of Northern Ireland. The real problem is that that the basic premise of the deal that brought peace to Northern Ireland in 1998 was that both countries would remain within the EU. I have referred here to an article written a couple of years ago by John McTernan,…

Read More Read More

The Mail’s front page reflects a growing narrative that of itself could trigger panic buying and add to a developing sense of crisis. Pics of empty shelves are becoming an increasing feature of late sparked off not just by the so called pingdemic, but the shortage of drivers and Brexit itself. It reminds me very much of the petrol crisis of 2000 which became the only period in William Hague’s leadership of the Tories when his party led in the…

Read More Read More

If it goes according to Survation If it goes according to YouGov For the projections, I have used Martin Baxter’s longstanding seat calculator. As can be seen the polling and the seat projections are in separate universes and there is no way you can rationalise it except that Survation’s fieldwork was four days later a period that was pretty bad for BoJo. The vaccine success story which BoJo is always eager to remind us has nothing like the potency it…

Read More Read More

Thanks to the excellent Election Maps site for the list of LD targets. It has produced charts like the above for all the parties based on what happened at GE2019. One of the big lessons that the LDs learned from GE2019 was that it is very hard to achieve victory in a seat when they were not runners up there at the previous general election. It is that previous outcome that is so important in setting expectations. Thus right from…

Read More Read More

Two things are for sure – Cummings is not going to go away and he’s become BoJo’s biggest, most powerful and dangerous critic. He played such a crucial part in the 2016 referendum and arguably it was his finely tuned approach to messaging that won the day for Leave. He is the one who is credited with the slogans “Take Back Control” and also the “Get Brexit Done” from GE2019. In many many ways it was his political skill that…

Read More Read More

Undoubtedly today’s big political event will be the broadcast by the BBC of the Laura Kuenssberg interview with Dom Cummings. As part of the build-up some choice comments are being circulated. The ones that stands out are these reported in the Sun: Undoubtedly Dom wants BoJo out and the veracity of his assertions need to be judged against that but it does appear to have the potential to damage. As the YouGov analysis of GE2019 above shows the Tories owe…

Read More Read More

The Tories have been ahead in the polls for months now and by significant margins. Sure, they lost Chesham & Amersham and failed by a tiny number of votes to win back Batley & Spen, both disappointments and, in the case of the former, a possible warning sign. But even so the polls are stuck with the Tories hovering around the 40% mark, sometimes up to 43% and Labour around 30%. Why might this be? Some suggestions: – Boris got…

Read More Read More