Having lived and brought up my family in the neighbouring constituency of Twickenham Dominic Raab’s seat of Esher and Walton is one I know well and where the LDs have hopes of making a gain whenever the general election happens. At GE2019, as the Wikipedia panel above shows, they came close last time and Raab would have lost if Labour voters had backed the LD. There are four factors that are central when looking at LD prospects in a particular…
There’s been a change in the next PM betting with Starmer back as favourite though only rated a 21% chance. What this market really shows, I’d suggest, is the growing certainty that Johnson will stay the course and lead the Tories into the next election. Sunak only gets favoured here when his boss appears in trouble – which is not happening at the moment. This is a market where it could be years, even a decade, before you could see…
Robert Hutton and Beth Rigby make a fair point in these Tweets – ministers can’t issue advice saying wear masks indoors when they don’t do it themselves. Heaven knows someone in the Number 10 PR department should have picked this one up before issuing the picture. All this does is reinforce the narrative about there being different standards for those in ‘Government and the rest of us. A PR fail.
On the previous thread PBer Isam wrote that he had just bet on the CON majority for the next general election. He didn’t tell us what odds he got but at the time the party was about a 40% chance on Betfair. We know that Isam is a serious gambler and his wager will be a significant one. One reason you place a bet of this nature so far ahead is that you believe that the odds will tighten which…
As we all know the pattern of polling since Johnson’s tax rise statement last Monday have been negative for the Tories. The latest from the normally Tory-friendly Redfield has the blue team lead down from 9% to 4% although its PM approval rating has moved just from a net minus 4% to just minus 2% which is very different from the Opinium minus 17% for essentially what is the same question. The Betfair general election majority market is based on…
Punters are split All the signs are that BoJo, who reputedly hates firing people, is getting ready for a reshuffle that could happen this week. The fact that the Tories have lost their lead in two of the latest polls is adding to the speculation that we might see something happening this week. There was a flurry of activity in Downing Street yesterday which suggests that something might be afoot Betting markets are starting to emerge and although there has…
The range: £100m to $1bn Welcome to tabloid fantasy land where the Mirror, Mail and Express each have a stab on how much the 18 year old US Open Tennis winner from Bromley in Kent is going to make. As can be seen from the front pages there is a wide variation which means, I’d suggest, that none of them has a clue. The Mail’s prediction of a gong is surely right. For Emma everything is dependent on whether she…
As predicted the victory by the 18 year old from Bromley, Emma Raducanu, has seen her shoot up in December’s election for the 2021 BBC Sports Personality of the Year and is now rated as a 90% chance by Betfair punters. Her victory late last night led to Tweets from the Palace, Number 10 and even Vote Leave and no doubt this is a young lady whom we are going to hear a lot more about. Winning Grand Slam Tennis…