politicalbetting.com

Normally I get quite excited about Westminster by elections particularly when they are defences by the party of government. But this strong Leave seat is surely going to be held by Tories and the “real” election was last Saturday’s selection of the Conservative candidate. Clearly there will be a very low turnout which has become the characteristic of by-elections where the LDs are not competitive. In times of old Davey’s party might have been in with a shout but since…

Read More Read More

Smarkets continue their series of local by-election bets with today’s contest in the Lancashire ward of North Meols near Southport. Last time there was an election here in 2019 the result was:49% Cons38% Lab13% UKIP This time there is not a UKIP candidate and we have a stright LAB-CON fight. On the face of it this looks like a CON hold. Punters however are seeing it differently and Labour in now the 64% favourite. I’m having a little bet on…

Read More Read More

As we all know the Tories have, except for just two polls, been ahead in every survey since the spring when the so-called vaccination bounce was happening. Could all that come to an end following BoJo’s decision to thwart action against what seems to be a clear case of paid for lobbying? A lot depends on how this is reported by the media and no doubt there is nervousness about how the national papers will treat it. We do have…

Read More Read More

The hugely controversial move by Johnson to overthrow an independent inquiry that found ex-cabinet minister Owen Paterson committed an “egregious” breach of lobbying rules has been passed by MPs. Paterson had faced a 30 day suspension which could have opened the door to a recall petition. This is dominating the domestic news this evening and Deputy LAB leader, Angela Raymer, earlier had what was a clear PMQs victory when standing in for Starmer. The Indy’s John Rentoul noted that this was one…

Read More Read More

Backing Paterson doesn’t look smart Nothing illustrates the feeling of confidence amongst BoJo’s Tories than their efforts to protect Owen Paterson. That ministers should even contemplate anything other than let the agreed process go forwards opens the party up to the allegations of “sleaze” which those of us who are old enough to remember were what created the political climate that saw Blair win his landslide victory at GE1997. All the party is seeking to do is get round the…

Read More Read More

The above NBC polling has just come out and raises the worry even more that Trump’s refusal to accept last November’s outcome could have a long lasting impact on confidence in the democratic process itself. Elected politicians get their authority from the fact that they have been elected and if that comes into doubt then very dangerous territory is being entered. We all know the story and we saw on January 6th how dangerous the big lie is. Even though…

Read More Read More

Tories ahead but well short of the 11.8% lead of GE2019 Some of these polls could see Johnson having to leave Number 10. Mike Smithson

I have made this point before but I will make it again that punters are over-rating Andy Burnham’s chances of becoming the next Labour leader. In my view he is favourite in the betting almost solely on the basis that he has higher name recognition and he has competed for the job twice before. What people seem to be forgetting is how poorly Burnham performed when he first ran for the post in the aftermath of the party”s GE2015 defeat…

Read More Read More