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By any standards the North Shropshire outcome will go down as one of the most sensational by-elections in decades with the LDs jumping from third place to win this Leave-voting agricultural seat with a huge swing that almost outdoes Christchurch of 1993. The result when it came wasn’t even close and saw a huge drop in the Tory vote with the LAB GE2019 vote more than halved. This is terrible for the Tories and the PM and completely knocks on…

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Tomorrow Johnson’s job could be at risk In the early hours of tomorrow morning, we should get the North Shropshire result – a by-election that has taken on a huge significance with the PM’s job possibly being on the line if this is not a CON hold. In the clip above veteran by-election watcher, Michael Crick, presses the Tory candidate who seems very reluctant to answer direct questions on the PM’s integrity. If, and it is a very big if,…

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Based on almost all the the by-election betting in the past year the betting markets have not been good prediction tools. These are wise words from Paul of the Poiticalgambler blog I will say it again. There really is nothing quite like a British by-election! The speculation and rumours are made for betting drama and the experts are frequently wrong..Remember Chesham and Amersham, where the Tories were [1.1] before losing by a 20% margin? Or Batley and Spen, where they were [1.25] before Labour…

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After the huge rebellion of Tory MPs last night against BJ’s Covid plans the chances of BJ going early, perhaps next year appears increasingly likely. That is how punters are seeing it as the betdata.io betting chart shows. This is not the only big challenge that BJ has to cope with this week. Given what happened last night and the PM’s less than confident recent PMQ appearances then facing Starmer at lunchtime looks even trickier than usual. Then there is…

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Quite why there has been a sharp move in the betting I do not know but as can be seen something has driven the market this afternoon. As those who have read my previous posts I had thought that the Lib Dem odds had just got too tight and maybe others are reading that as well. If anybody has any info please post it on the thread.