So far I have only got a small bet on this market and it was placed some time ago. Although all the pressure today has been absolutely dreadful for Johnson I’m still not convinced that he’ll go of his own accord or that there will be a successful move amongst Conservative MP’s to get rid of him. It is very risky for MPs pressing ahead with a confidence vote because if Johnson wins it then there can be no similar…
One of the reasons that I use Opinium polls a lot for illustrative purposes is that the firm’s polling datasets are far more comprehensive than any other pollster and provide information not available elsewhere. The chart above is a case in point and illustrates the value of Opinium’s practice of including cross-heads showing responses of those polled in different sorts of constituency based on the GE2019 outcome. Here I am trying to show how things have moved since “Peak Boris”…
Compare these Focaldata findings from April… With these responses this week
This morning we have had three national voting polls which are featured in the Wikipedia table above. As can be seen, the Tories have slipped with YouGov having the party on 30% which is almost 15% down on GE2019. Focaldata and Redfield have the party a touch higher but LAB is clearly ahead. No doubt Tory MPs will be feeding the numbers into Electoral Calculus to see if their seats are safe. By my reckoning, if the next election followed…
This morning’s front pages are quite unusual for the PM in that his announcement on Christmas mostly gets generally positive coverage. Given the way his personal ratings have plummeted in recent weeks the Tories must be hoping that this might turn the tide. This is an announcement that affects tens of millions of people in England and I know that personally for me this is great news because I’ll be able to be with the UK part of my family…
Currently the most active and biggest UK political betting market is on when Boris Johnson is going to cease to be Prime Minister. It is now as the chart shows being rated as a greater than 50% chance. Things are going very badly for the PM at the moment and I wonder whether he would help himself by curtailing his practice of making all the main government announcements. Other cabinet ministers barely get a look in. We just see too…
This is close to Corbyn’s final net -50% I’ve always argued that leader ratings are a better guide to how things stand than voting intention polls. The chart from YouGov shows the trend in Johnson’s Well/Badly ratings since he was elected leader and became PM in July 2019. These latest numbers are only one or two points better than the final ratings for Corbyn and TMay. The big question now is will there be an uplift or are perceptions of…
After a disastrous few weeks for he PM it is inevitable that there is a lot of speculation about him being forced out something that is much easier under Tory party rules than with Labour. We have almost been seeing a negative story a day over the past week or so and a common theme is how he actually manages his affairs. The worst thing, certainly in the eyes of several focus group participants, was his Peppa PIg speech to…