YouGov Favourability ratings: Johnson still beating Patel
I always feel a sense of ownership over YouGov’s regular favourability ratings. During the coalition years I was asked by YouGov if I would like a special question devised by me to be asked by the firm. After some consideration, I came up with favourability ratings which then were very common in the US but rarely seen in the UK. After a few months PB’s linkage to this polling faded out and this became a YouGov regular. Inevitably Johnson’s numbers…
Hunt now a clear third place in Johnson successor betting
With the prospect of an early Conservative leadership election becoming increasingly more likely there has been a lot of activity in the betting. As can be seen Rishi Sunak has edged up even further to his highest level ever but he is still rated as only a 35% chance. Behind him is the Foreign Secretary Liz Truss who of course, has topped the last few surveys of Conservativehome when party members were asked to give their thoughts on who should…
I still think Johnson will survive
At the start of the week I suggested that Starmer was a good bet to become the next PM. My reasoning was Johnson would last to the general election when the easier seat target that Labour will have would give the LAB leader a chance of becoming PM though probably not with a majority of MPs. The bet requires Johnson to remain to fight the next election something that at times has looked very unlikely over the past couple of…
Rees-Mogg’s belittling the Scottish CON leader was dumb
Party-gate could move to being about the union One of the side stories of the current Tory “party-gate” drama has been the way that Jacob Rees-Mogg sought to belittle the comments of the leader of the Scottish Tories by saying he wasn’t a big figure. This could have serious electoral consequences at the next general election when the Tories will need to keep their seat losses below 47 in order to remain in power. Mogg said on Newsnight that Douglas…
Terrible front pages for Johnson as CON drops to 28%
The Johnson exit betting now has 2022 as a 61% chance
As can be seen from the chart the BoJo exit date betting, as you might expect, has been very active today and now punters rate it as a 61% chance that he will be out this year. As I have stated before I am less convinced although it has been very tough for the PM today with so much evidence building up to suggest he hasn’t been truthful in the Commons. But either Johnson needs to go of his own…
So what should CON MPs and members do now?
Contain the damage with a new leader?? Undoubtedly today’s PMQs was the toughest for Johnson since he became prime minister in July 2019. His attempts on previous occasions to minimise what happened at various gatherings during the strictest lockdown 2020 might have moved the dial in his favour a touch or it might not. He is not helped by his accounts of what happened changing at each iteration and Starmer had a good PMQs. I am still far from convinced…