Today’s news on the timing of the Gray report has led to Sunak dropping below a 30% chance in the next PM betting. Clearly, his position had been underpinned by the likelihood of an early vacancy and the latest machinations reduce that possibility. One of my current betting positions (at 10 on Betfair) is that Starmer will be the next PM – a core element of that is Johnson still being at Number 10 at the next election. I’ve long…
So for all of those who thought that the publication of the Gray report would be the the end of the matter now we have the news that we’re not even going to see the detail relating to what actually went on in number 10. This was of course the fear that everybody had when it was announced that the police were getting involved. On the betting markets the chances of a Johnson exit this year has now dropped even…
A 2022 exit now a 65% With no move yet against the PM the 2022 exit gamble on the betting markets has edged down a bit and now stands at a 65% chance. It was nearly 80%. Things could move very quickly once the Gray report comes out but we are going to have to wait. There’s no doubt that Number 10 has been working hard on trying to influence Tory MPs ahead of a possible confidence vote and one…
Although there has been something of an uptick for the Tories in some voting polls the latest from Ipsos-MORI in tonight’s London Standard is very bad for Johnson. A total of 70% said they were dissatisfied with him compared with just 24% saying they were satisfied. The firm has been doing political polling in the UK since the 1970s and has records going that far back so we can make comparisons. Mrs. T at her lowest didn’t touch today’s ratings…
By far the biggest current political betting market is the one above on when will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister. As can seen from the chart there has been a movement away from him going early but it’s still a 68% chance, This is a very tricky want to call because ultimately this is in the hands of his fellow Tory MPs. One thing that might help in forming a judgment is this from former PB regular, Alastair…
Johnson was previously a journalist – Starmer a lawyer At today’s PMQs Johnson sought to make Starmer’s background as a lawyer into as an attack line. He described him as “A lawyer not a leader”. I’m not sure that this has the potency that Johnson intended. Although the phrase rolls off the tongue nicely the sentiment behind it isn’t supported by the polling as the above from YouGov suggests. I think this highlights a key problem for the Tories because…
What happened with the Thatcher exit in 1990 The above Wikipedia table is of the opinion polls for the final 6 weeks of 1990 when Mrs Thatcher was effectively pushed out by her MPs and John Major became prime minister. There is little doubt by the time of the events of autumn of that year Maggie had become an electoral liability for her party. There had been the shock loss of Eastbourne to the LDs in a by-election caused by…
Above is the latest polling on Johnson and this is in line with other earlier surveys that we have seen. By a very clear margin voters, including 38% of Tory voters want him out. On Wednesday there are likely to be further developments and, of course, Johnson will have to face Starmer at PMQs. These are couple of betting markets from Smarkets.