politicalbetting.com

The one betting market that has moved following the overnight news about the invasion of Ukraine has been the above one on when Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister. Clearly, this would not appear to be a good time for Tory MPs to pursue a no-confidence vote which is just about the only way he is going to shift. A confidence vote followed by a leadership election is simply not on at the moment. All this puts into perspective…

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Sunak drops in next PM betting while Starmer moves up

Following on from the previous post and the troubles that Le Pen appears to be having getting onto April’s French Presidential ballot I’ve been betting this morning that the final two will not be Macron + Le Pen. This bet could be a winner even if Le Pen manages to get on the ballot. She would then have to make the top two in the first round of voting in April for this to be a loser. I’m also betting…

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Le Pen might not even get on the first round ballot The big 2022 election in Europe is the French one which takes place on two Sundays in April two weeks apart. This two-stage process means that any number of contenders can seek to put themselves forward in the first stage and it is the top two in votes that take part in the final runoff two weeks later. The first hurdle that contenders have to surmount is getting 500…

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He’s got to hope this doesn’t lead to more cases The above YouGov polling highlights a gamble that Boris Johnson is taking with the relaxation of the COVID rules in England. What is interesting is that north of the border Nicola Sturgeon is continuing to keep her rules in place and this offers a possible comparison. It has always been known that Johnson’s whole personality is very much against controls of this nature. Also he’s trying to crawl back in…

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This comment was posted by Cicero on the previous thread and given a good account of the mood in the baltic states which I reproduce here in full. A must read to understand what’s going on “ “I attended a business conference at a hotel in Tallinn last night, and afterwards we were having a coffee in the hotel lobby when the Putin speech came on CNN. The Estonians and Georgians in our party were very grim faced indeed. This…

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Are restrictions being eased too early? Just as the Johnson government was sharply criticised for the delay in bringing in restrictions two years ago I wonder whether the latest move will similarly be seen as a mistake. In many ways Johnson’s desire to return to “normality” is commendable but but he is taking a gamble. It will be interesting to see whether the public will view it positively. Also while we wait for the Met report on Johnson this might…

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