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Johnson’s doing 4% worse than Corbyn on the eve of GE2019 I am sure that just about all PBers are aware of my position that leader approval numbers are a better guide to the public mood than voting intention. Having been stuck in all day because of the storms I’ve been looking at historical ratings and have discovered that in the final Opinium polling before GE2019 Corbyn had a net approval rating of 24% approving and 54% disapproving – a…

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The above finding is from a new voting survey out from new pollster, Techne UK, that like other recent polls finds a drop in the LAB share. It has LAB 39% -2, CON 34% +1, LD 10%+ GRN 6% =. It is that finding highlighted above which focuses on one of the big dilemmas that Starmer faces – what should his party’s view be on Brexit. A real difficulty here is that his view about not going back is not…

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AS can be seen from the chart there has been a sharp decline in the next PM betting price of Chancellor Sunak on the Betfair betting exchange. This, I guess, is being driven by the growing realisation that there might not be an immediate vacancy. Interesting that Penny Mordaunt is now in sixth place. During the TMay years she was a full cabinet member serving as International Development Secretary and then Defence Secretary where she built a good reputation. She…

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In my view today’s news about an informal LAB/LD non-aggression pact has always been on the cards given the personalities of the two leaders. Davey wants a clearer run for his party in perhaps 30 CON held seats which mostly voted Remain and Starmer has his eyes on Number 10. My understanding is that both parties will still be fielding candidates in all the GB seats but will just run token campaigns in seats where the other party is the…

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It increasingly looks like Johnson will remain Just cast your mind back to the end of January when “partygate” was at its height and the prevailing assumption was that Johnson would not survive with the likely successor being Rishi Sunak. That’s not happened. Johnson set up the Gray investigation which was then taken up by the Met all taking the immediate sting out of the whole business. For the fact is that Johnson is going to fight hard to retain…

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The Indy is reporting that Starmer now has his highest “Best PM” yet in its latest poll for the online newspaper. This follows, of course, the attempts by Johnson to link him with Jimmy Saville. The latest survey records 39% saying the LAB leader would be best PM which is 3% up on the previous high. Johnson is on 31%. The same poll records a sharp drop in Sunak’s net Favourability score down by seven 7% since last month to…

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It is not often that one story totally dominates the front pages and this morning the deal that Prince Andrew did to put an end to the sex assault claims is all over all the papers. Only the Times does not make it the lead story. There is a lot of detailed examination of the actual wording of the statement that was issued and the Palace must really hope that this is an end to the matter. Buckingham Palace would…

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I have referred to this Redfield & Wllton regular poll question before – how do those sampled rate Sunak against Johnson on who would make the better PM – because it is one that could impact on Tory MPs as they try to decide whether to stick with Johnson or have another leader and PM. When asked would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment 41% say Rishi Sunak (up 1%) and 28% say Boris Johnson…

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