Putin’s Ukraine invasion could impact on the French election
Exactly a month today will be the first round of voting in the French presidential election in which currently the incumbent, Emmanuel Macron, is the strong favorite with Marie Le Penn in second place. The 12 candidates who have satisfied the nomination threshold will be on the ballot on April 10th and the top two go into the second round of voting two weeks later. The widespread expectation had been that the final runoff would be the same as 2017…
It’s a 12.5% betting chance that Putin will be out by May 1st
The only betting I can find that links to the Ukraine crisis is on the Smarkets betting exchange on whether Putin will still be Russian president on May 1st. He has certainly taken a massive gamble with his decision to invade Ukraine and as the death toll rises on both sides the question is how does this all end? NATO is being very guarded about it getting involved because there must be a risk that if Putin is pushed too…
As Johnson looks securer Sunak’s next PM chances decline
It is almost hard to credit it now but barely two months ago Chancellor Sunak looked relatively certain to be the next prime minister and the betting he money was on a change at Number 10 taking place during this year. How that different that appears now as Johnson’s ratings rise in response to his steady performance over Ukraine and his growing confidence. He certainly is having a good war as they say. Sunak’s big chance was in ‘January when…
What to do with a cornered rat.
Russia’s proposals to end the war/Special Military Operation amount to asking for Ukraine’s unconditional surrender and remaining under Russian influence thereafter. It is less the proposals which are interesting, more the fact that they have been made at all. And by Russia. The war has, so far at least, “developed not necessarily to [Russia’s] advantage“. And as Emperor Hirohito observed “the general trends of the world have all turned against her interest.” Still, it is early days and if Russia…
As ever cartoonist Steve Bell hits the nail on the head
LAB YouGov lead down to 2% but Johnson trails Starmer by 7% as “best PM”
The voting numbers were: Lab: 37% (-2 from 24-25 Feb) Con: 35% (+1) Green: 8% (+2) Lib Dem: 7% (-2) SNP: 5% (n/c) Reform UK: 5% (n/c) As can be seen in the chart 33% said Starmer would make the best PM compared with 26% for Johnson. This compares with yesterday’s Redfield Wilton where Johnson is on 39% compared with Starmer’s 35%. As I recently argued the format of the R&W “best PM” question is very favourable to the incumbent…
This is not the time for Patel to be Home Secretary
What is becoming very clear is that there is a great deal of public involvement in the UK over the Ukraine crisis. People see terrible scenes on their televisions every evening and this has touched a raw nerve. Many want to find out if there is a way they can help relieve the terrible conditions many Ukrainians are having to put up with. We are told that well over a million people have fled the country and are now refugees….