I really love this betting chart on Johnson’s exit date which gives a snapshot of how those like me who bet on politics view his survival chances and are prepared to risk money backing their views up. For long periods the chances of him surviving the year have looked unlikely but judging by the latest movement punters now make him carrying on until 2024 or later the favourite. It was always said when things looked very bad for the PM…
Just over a third think it was right There is is little doubt that the flagship policy of the Johnson administration has been the execution of Britain’s exit from the EU – Brexit. Well the latest YouGov Brexit tracker which has been asked every month since the referendum in 2016 is out and shows that the number supporting it down to just 37%. Those Tory voters who are left are continuing to give it their backing with 80% saying that…
Last night Smarkets held an event to look at next week’s local elections. The areas that are having them are in colour in the Wikipedia map above. I found it a weird experience because where I live like in most parts of England there are not elections next week and it is harder to share the excitement. It is always noticeable how the mainstream media takes the locals more seriously when London elections are involved and the signs are that…
The declining chances of a CON majority Everybody is talking about the locals at the moment but the big thing about next Thursday’s set of elections is what it will tell us about the next general election. Is Johnson’s government in spite of everything going to be able to survive or else are we going to move into the territory of a hung parliament once again? A year ago another CON majority got a huge betting spike as a result…
Will this MP be able to survive? Whoever this is, and we must assume that the name will come out at some stage, it is hard to see the individual concerned remaining as an MP. As well as being totally stupid because of the chances of getting caught this comes at a time when all aspects of the behavior of male MPs in relation to women are becoming a serious political issue. So one for the possible by-election list. Mike…
One of the things that has come to a head during the current parliament is the rule that MPs are not allowed to call each other liars in the House of Commons. This has been driven largely by what his opponents see as the prime minister’s approach to the truth. It used to be an almost central feature of the Commons that if a minister knowingly lied to the house then he/she would resign. That seems to have gone by…
The Yorkshire Party chooses the ex-Tory and PBer David Herdson, who for nearly a decade used to post the Saturday morning slot on PB, has been selected by the Yorkshire Party for the upcoming Wakefield by-election. He is a former chairman of the Shipley Conservative Association and then the Wakefield District Conservative Association but left the party in 2019 because of the stance on Brexit. He set out his reasons in a PB post in August 2019.: In truth, Brexit…
The collapse of Sunak In the next CON leader betting has left open a new battleground between five top Tories who are rated by the betting markets as having the best chance of being the one who takes over from Johnson. Hunt, of course, made the final two in 2019 and did better than most people expected against Johnson. Behind him on the markets are Truss, Tugeendhat, Wallace and Mordaunt. I find this hard to call and many Tory voters…