Clearly Boris Johnson is going through a very tricky period and the big question remains whether he can survive certainly until the end of the year. Until late past week I’ve taken the view that he would make it but this lunchtime I placed a bet at about 2/1 on Betfair that he would be out this year. This is not a prediction but an assessment that the odds offered value. The hurdles in the short term for Johnson are…
Their vote could be career-defining Just imagine you are running a LAB/LD/SNP campaign in a marginal constituency where you think there is a chance at the next general election. In the current context there could be nothing better for the incumbent CON MP to vote to block the inquiry into the PM’s consistent failure to be honest. If Tory MPs follow their leader and seek to scupper the move then they too will be tarred by Johnson’s behaviour and that…
Please note I have COVID and my contributions to the site will be very limited until I recover. But there is certainly enough to be talking about.
Today is the first day back at work for MPs after the Easter vacation and one of the things that might come up is moving the writ for the Wakefield by-election. What we know is that Boris Johnson’s government tends to move these pretty quickly after the vacancy occurs. The tradition at Westminster is for the party that held the seat at the general election to actually initiate the process to replace MP who is no longer there. The reason…
Another maternity scandal, this time a long-standing one which has, according to this story in the Sunday Times, been going on for ca. 50 years. Pregnant women suffering from epilepsy have been given a drug – sodium valproate – which (while effective at controlling epilepsy) is teratogenic, causing life-changing physical and neurological deformities to children. Its effects on the unborn child have been known about for some time but it continues to be prescribed. The risks were known to the…
Given that the latest poll over the weekend has LAB with an 11% lead you would have thought that Johnson would at least recognise that he needs be to contrite in a little way. There is a lot of strong feeling out there from the 80% plus of people who strictly followed the lockdown rules and after being fined you would expect Johnson not to ignore this. The lead story in this morning’s Times under the heading “Defiant Boris Johnson…
These two charts from YouGov really should frighten anyone in the Conservative Party, I’m a strong proponent of the belief that oppositions don’t win general elections, governments lose them, and these poll findings seem to indicate the Conservatives are on course to lose the next election. The cost of living crisis, the tempest long foretold foretold, is shredding the reputation of the government as evidenced in the above YouGov findings. There’s a bit of irony that keeping inflation low is…