The event behind the polling suppression row? There has been a lot of coverage in the past day or so about out a YouGov poll that was said to have been carried out after the BBC leaders debate at the 2017 general election. The screenshot above shows the participants who were the leaders of the Plaid Cymru, the SNP, the Green Party, LAB, UKIP and the LDs. TMay refused to participate and she sent Amber Rudd, now an ex-MP, in…
One of the big developments in the next CON leader betting that PB hasn’t really covered has been the rise and rise of ex-Royal Navy reservist Penny Mordaunt. She’s now the 13% second favourite and appears highly credible. She served in TMay’s cabinet in 2019 International Development Secretary and then Defence Secretary and is an inpressive Commons and TV performer. At some stage Johnson is going to fall and it is currently looking as though the final two the next…
I’m travelling today so not much time for me write a new piece. Mike Smithson
Although Johnson “won” Monday’s vote punters are still putting money on him not surviving in 2022 and this remains the betting favourite for his exit year.. I’m not so sure about this. Johnson is not going of his own accord and it is going to take something like a huge rebellion amongst Tory MPs to shift him. Also while at Number 10 he retains huge powers of patronage which he will use, if required, to reinforce his position. This has…
The above is an anti-LD leaflet being put out by the Tories as they try to save Tiverton and Honiton in the Westminster by-election that takes place on June 23rd. Clearly the aim is to try to warn previous Tory backers of what they see as the danger posed by Ed Davey’s party. It does suggest they are taking this seriously in a way that they didn’t in Shropshire North last December. I’m not sure, however, that focussing on policy…
This compares with TMay’s 63% in 2019
Since it was founded in 2004 the Conservativehome website has proved to be a good indicator of the mood amongst party members so this afternoon’s survey with 55% wanting Johnson out is not good news for the PM less than 2 hours before his fate is decided by the parliamentary party. One assumes that MPs will be aware of the mood amongst members in their own constituency and this could affect their decisions. In the betting a 2022 exit is…