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In an excellent piece in the I the paper’s Chief Political Commentator, Paul Waugh, sets out the mechanics of how Johnson could face a confidence vote from the Tory grassroots. According to Waugh under an obscure clause in the party’s constitution “ just 65 constituency chairmen are needed to trigger an Extraordinary General Meeting of the National Conservative Convention (NCC), the 800-strong body that represents the Tory grassroots.” Such a vote would not be binding on Johnson but it would clearly…

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After a week in which Johnson easily survived the attempt by some Conservative MP’s to oust him inevitably the PM exit year betting market has moved sharply. As can be seen, him going in 2024 or later is now favourite with an exit this year down to just 27%. Clearly what is being priced in are Tory losses in the June 23rd by-elections. In the Wakefield market punters now give LAB a 98% chance of winning while in Tiverton and…

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Sunak is no longer the great hope The Redfield and Wilton Strategies chart tells the story of the last two and a bit years in UK politics from the perspective of the Johnson and Starmer net approval ratings. The latest poll out today has the LAB leader just in negative territory but a net 22% ahead of the PM. The other player recorded here is Sunak who is doing better than his boss but still trails Starmer. From the voting…

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Writing in the Guardian, Peter Kellner asserts that “it is common knowledge that final election polls are sometimes tweaked”.  This should not come as a particular surprise. For a few days before an election, the one place neither a pollster nor the client wish to be is out of line with all the others, whether that means all the others have got it right or wrong. Sticking to ones methodological guns, carefully developed over the previous years, requires courage.   I…

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One of the factors that could have an impact on the Tory defence of the Tiverton and Honiton by-election on June 23rd is that this is one of the days earmarked for the national rail strikes at the end of June. A big factor in the LD campaign so far has been the really excellent rail links that Tiverton has as can be seen in the London to Tirverton Parkway time-table above. Every hour there is a service from London,…

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A growing %age wants him to quit While we are talking about YouGov the firm’s latest “Should BoJo” resign polling looks increasingly difficult for the current incumbent at Number 10 and these changes since last month are bigger than the margin of error. Clearly he is having a rough time and I am far from sure that he actually realises how bad his lockdown behaviour appears in the eyes of the vast majority of the population who followed the strict…

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The event behind the polling suppression row? There has been a lot of coverage in the past day or so about out a YouGov poll that was said to have been carried out after the BBC leaders debate at the 2017 general election. The screenshot above shows the participants who were the leaders of the Plaid Cymru, the SNP, the Green Party, LAB, UKIP and the LDs. TMay refused to participate and she sent Amber Rudd, now an ex-MP, in…

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One of the big developments in the next CON leader betting that PB hasn’t really covered has been the rise and rise of ex-Royal Navy reservist Penny Mordaunt. She’s now the 13% second favourite and appears highly credible. She served in TMay’s cabinet in 2019 International Development Secretary and then Defence Secretary and is an inpressive Commons and TV performer. At some stage Johnson is going to fall and it is currently looking as though the final two the next…

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