We are now in the final phase of the Tiverton & Honiton by-election which makes place next Thursday. This was caused by the resignation of the incumbent MP after he had been observed viewing porn on his phone in the Commons Chamber. On the face of it this looks like a sure-fire hold for the Tories which came in 45.4% above the third place LDs at GE2019. But right from the point the betting markets were opened Davey’s party has…
A couple of weeks ago a senior Tory messaged me from Westminster suggesting that the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, was over the worst and could be on the way back. So this latest polling comes as no real surprise. His negatives like the non-Dom status now seem minimal compared with those of the incumbent. Johnson’s position at the moment has been helped by the lack of any real alternative. The former HealthSec and 2019 leadership finalist, Hunt, made what appeared to…
Normally questions like the above about a leading politician produce a fairly sharpish split between those who support the party of the person being assessed and those who don’t. That’s why this latest polling on Johnson by YouGov should be so worrying for those concerned about future election success for the party. That 49% of CON voters hold the view that he generally behaves unethically is not good and will be noted by the growing number of Tories who are…
But we are close to crossover With everything else that is happening we have barely looked at the next general election betting and the latest position is in the chart above. The Tories are now down to a 51.55% chance for most seats with LAB not far behind. From past and costly experience I’ve learned that long range general election bets should be best avoided except if they offer incredible value. Why tie up your money for nearly two years…
The LDs in the Devon by-election have issued internal polling based on thousands of separate contacts with voters in the constituency which they claim has them just 2% behind the Tories. This has the Tories on 46% with the LDs on 44%. It should be noted that the party issued similar data at this stage ahead of Richmond Park (2016), Brecon & Radnorshire (2019), Chesham & Amersham (2021) and Shropshire North (2021). In each case the “polling” understated what they…
There are some well-worn memes doing the rounds following the ECHR decision yesterday on deportation flights to Rwanda. Many contain a number of factual errors and so, like the very busy editor of the Guardian’s Corrections section, let’s shed some light on these. The government’s policy has been declared illegal by European judges. No, it hasn’t. There will be a full court hearing in the English courts in three weeks time to assess the claims made by various appellants that…
I can’t decide which way the Rwanda flight ban is going to go in terms of how it impacts on public opinion – eight days before the crucial Wakefield and Devon by-elections. Two of the front pages use the word “farce” which rather sums things up This dominates the papers this morning and the fact that it is a European institution that has intervened only adds to the confusion. The ECHR, of course, is not part of the EU and…
The chart from Smarkets shows the latest betting on who will be the next Conservative leader. The big change is that Jeremy Hunt’s position at the top of the betting has now been moved and Penny Mordaunt takes his place. She maybe favourite but she’s only rated as a 13% chance just slightly ahead of Hunt with several other leading Tories not far behind. The big thing about this market is that there is no vacancy and there is not…