The betting for next prime minister is still very much dominated by the YouGov polling of Tory members that came out nearly 2 weeks ago. This had Truss with a very clear lead of 19% and it is hard to see how Sunak can overhaul it That was all before the TV debates and heightened media interest in the process to choose who will be Britain’s Prime Minister for when Johnson finally steps down in early September Polls can, of…
Now a 65% chance on Betfair I have a very long record of a failing ever to bet on the winner of the BBC Sports Personality of the Year so please take my advice here with great caution. As can be seen the English editions of the nationals this morning are totally dominated by England’s victory at Wembley yesterday. Beth Mead is currently the strong odds-on favourite to win this annual vote in December but there is a long way…
And LAB is 13% ahead in Savanta national voting poll 56% think the new PM should call an immediate election
12 days ago she was just a 5% chance My own view is that Truss punters are overstating her prospects because the challenge facing her is so much greater than Starmer. For the latter could be the post-election PM even if LAB has fewer votes and MPs than the Tories. We’ve observed several times here that the Tories will struggle to find partners to keep them in power if they come out with fewer than half the seats. The same…
The contest’s over before a vote is cast The big challenges for Truss now are how she deals with Johnson and Sunak. She cannot allow it to appear that the outgoing PM is still playing an active role as no doubt he will attempt to do. Truss has to find a way of breaking the link which might be challenging especially as Labour will try to portray it as though she is the former PM’s poodle. What she does with…
I have just had a bet at about 4/1 that the Tories will have a poll lead at some stage during September. My reasoning is that a new arrival at number 10 is going to be dominating the news in the first part of the and there’s just a possibility that this could help the Tories improve their position in relation to Labour in one or two polls at least. This will be helped, of course, by the exit of…
At a 24% chance Biden’s a good bet for the WH2024 nomination While all the PB focus for months has been on UK politics we have done very little on what is generally the biggest political betting event of all – the US Presidential election the next of which takes place in 2024. This will be the 6th White House race to be covered on PB the first being in 2004. One of the big questions in US politics is…