However you look at this Liz Truss is now a near certainty to become the next Conservative leader and Prime Minister. Yet we will still have to wait for 3 weeks before we get the official declaration and then, no doubt, the trip to the Palace. Yet she was only the third choice of MPs on the first ballot and even on the final count amongst the parliamentary party she trailed Rishi Sunak by some distance. There is nothing she…
Up to last month’s historic decision by the US Supreme Court to overturn the 1973 Roe v Wade precedent on abortion it did appear that the Republican party was going to take the House and the Senate in the November 8th mid-term elections. The balance on the Supreme Court had been changed during the Trump presidency but no one really thought that Roe v Wade would be overturned in the way that it was. Now it is looking less certain…
Not good for the Red wall? I have no doubt that Keir Starmer and his team are already preparing for the first prime Minister’s Questions with Liz Truss and I wonder whether the contents of the above tweet from Lisa Nandy might figure in the very first one. Whenever the party opposite gets a new leader then the other side starts working at ways of undermining him or her and seeking to brand them in a manner that could impact…
Historically in American politics in the first midterm elections following a new President the party that does not control the White House does well in the Senate and House elections.These take place on November 8th That is certainly happening this year in the betting on the House elections where as can be seen from the charts the assumption of punters is that this will be a relatively easy victory for the Republicans If you want to bet on the composition…
A man tries to murder a British writer for what he wrote in a novel published 34 years ago, 10 years before the would-be murderer was born. A Police Community Support Officer in Britain seeks to lecture a woman about changing her views on trans rights despite two police officers having previously visited and determined that the woman was committing no offence by displaying a sticker, expressing different views to that of the PCSO, in her window. A British university…
What a legacy
One of the big Boris Johnson issues on which punters have a mixed view is whether he’ll remain as an MP until at least the next General Election. The best place to bet on this is the Smarkets market above on whether there will be a by-election in Johnson’s seat before the general election. A lot here depends on how Johnson sees his future career and on that my guess is that he hasn’t made his mind up. If he…
An early U-Turn? The screen grab above is from the front page of the Times and sets out neatly the very big decision that the new PM will have to take when she takes over early next month. Starmer has put forward his freeze bills plan and YouGov polling appears to show that this is resonating with voters. That three in four CON voters want to do what Starmer is suggesting make this a tricky one for Truss. The big…