The most interesting aspect of UK politics over the next few months will be seeing how the new Tory leader and Prime Minister, Liz Truss, does against Keir Starmer and vice versa. Their first PMQs is going to be a must watch. One thing is clear is that the Tory leadership contest has really helped Truss who has become far more confident and a better communicator than she was at the start of the campaign. A problem might be that…
One of the best reads this morning is this – The Crisis at the hearts of the Conservative Party by Johnson Oxley in the Speccie .
The huge news in American politics this week has of course been the raid by FBI agents on Donald Trump’s home in Florida. It is being suggested that they were looking for nuclear codes in the residence and other linked data that Trump acquired when he was President. If this is case it would be in breach of strong legal rules about these being removed from the White House. It will also raise a lot of questions about why he…
Perhaps the most worrying for the Tories is the Mail on the NHS and its question on the linkage to the tax hike. If that is the start of a campaign it could cause real political damage. I still think that Truss, if indeed it is her, will get a boost when she arrives at Number 10 if only because Johnson is out of the way. He’s been a big drag on the party ever since the revelations emerged of…
Beto, who came to prominence in the 2018 midterms, is running for the Governorship of Texas and I just wonder if he could go for the White House at the 2024 elections. I’ve just put £20 on him for the Democrat nomination WH2024 nomination at180/1 with Betfair. There’s no doubt that he’s getting a lot of coverage with the above incident. Mike Smithson
Just imagine you are one of those Tory MPs who came to Westminster as a result of gains made at the last general election. It is likely that when you put yourself forward to be the candidate in a constituency that always went Labour you really had no thought that victory was possible. But then the huge upheaval of the December 2019 election came about and you found yourself an MP with all the changes in your life that meant….
The above betting chart shows just how stable the betting has become with Truss barely moving off a 90% chance since the start of the month. Although the race is occupying so much media attention very littie is happening that is going to prevent the now gaffe-prone Truss from being made leader and getting the call from the Palace on September 6th. At the moment she is running a terrible campaign with U-turn after U-turn saying one thing one day…
Can she really lead the Tories to another majority? On this I think that punters have got this wrong because the challenge facing the Tories at the next election is so great that it is hard to see how they can stay in power unless they secure an overall majority. Apart from the DUP there is no other significant grouping in UK politics to which the Tories are going to be able to link in the event that they don’t…