In spite of all the Labour poll leads over the past nine months or so the betting markets have consistently made the Tories the favourites to win most seats at the next general election. The betting chart above shows how perceptions have changed and how now for the very first time LAB is rated as having a better chance than the Tories of winning most seats. It should be noted here that the Tories with the new boundaries will find…
Three parties are already campaigning Even though Johnson is still PM and we are less than a fortnight away from us knowing who his successor will be at least three parties have already started knocking on doors and delivering leaflets in the Mid-Beds seat where Nadine Dorries is the MP. The reason, of course, is that it has been widely reported that Dorries, the loudest cheerleader for Johnson since he became leader, is expected to be given a peerage in…
Of the 40 seats that R&K include in the poll the Tories gained 39 at GE2019. The other seat polled, Hartlepool, was picked up by ‘Johnson’s party in the by-election last year. What is clear is that this is very much the battleground for the next elections though if all 40 were to flip the Tories would still have an overall majority but a very narrow one. On top of that the Tories are going to face fierce attacks defending…
As those who visit the site regularly will know I have a largish bet on the Tories recording a poll lead during September. My reasoning has always been that the new Conservative leader, which we will know on September 6th, is likely to see something of a bounce for the party in the period immediately afterwards. I have been very much influenced by what happened to Labour in June 2007 following the departure of Tony Blair and the arrival at…
Remember Laura Norder? A perennial favourite of Tory conferences – with Home Secretaries vowing to support the police and be tough on criminals. Even Blair joined in with his “tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime” slogan. That was then. Now it is the ECHR, lefty lawyers and other bleeding heart liberals in the government’s sights for, it is said, undermining the fight for justice and the rights of true born Britons to sleep easy in their beds….
An internal Labour analysis being reported by the Guardian is suggesting what I have been predicting, and betting on for several weeks, Truss will get a significant new PM bounce in the polls. The report by Pippa Crerar notes: A memo drawn up by Keir Starmer’s director of strategy, Deborah Mattinson, claimed the foreign secretary could dramatically improve Conservative fortunes. The document, dated 18 August and leaked to the Guardian, comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the…