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The YouGov polling for tomorrow’s Sunday Times highlights what I believe will be an increasing challenge for the new government when Truss takes over. The NHS has been so central to British politics since it was founded just after the war and in election after election has been amongst the top couple of issues in determining how people vote. For a whole series of reasons the service appears to be struggling at the moment and this is represented in the…

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What a situation for BoJo’s successor? One of the problems about the timing of the leadership contest is that less attention is being paid to the coming disaster that will be created by the sharp rise in energy prices. Some of the headlines this morning are pretty bad and as far as I can see they don’t overestimate the situation. This is a serious crisis and is impacting on not just the UK. If it is Liz Truss who takes…

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The timing of the next general election is not something that we have looked at very much on PB and the general assumption is that it will be 2024. I just wonder whether Liz Trust, assuming that it is her, might be tempted to go early if by any chance she gets a polling boost when the result comes out the week after next. The only problem here is the memory within the Conservative party about what happened with Theresa…

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If the YouGov polling of CON members is right then the party is about to choose as leader someone who is not the first choice of Tory MPs. It will be recalled that in July Liz Truss came third in the first, second, third, and fourth rounds of MP voting. Even in the final MP round to choose the two names to go to the membership she got just 31.8% of the Tory MPs voting for her. This was just…

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The above confrontation between the HealthSec and a member of the public is getting a fair bit of coverage and the issue is not going to go away. Quite why this is happening now is hard to say but too many reports are emerging. This should be near to the top of th Truss things to do list when she moves into Number 10. Mike Smithson

In spite of all the Labour poll leads over the past nine months or so the betting markets have consistently made the Tories the favourites to win most seats at the next general election. The betting chart above shows how perceptions have changed and how now for the very first time LAB is rated as having a better chance than the Tories of winning most seats. It should be noted here that the Tories with the new boundaries will find…

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Three parties are already campaigning Even though Johnson is still PM and we are less than a fortnight away from us knowing who his successor will be at least three parties have already started knocking on doors and delivering leaflets in the Mid-Beds seat where Nadine Dorries is the MP. The reason, of course, is that it has been widely reported that Dorries, the loudest cheerleader for Johnson since he became leader, is expected to be given a peerage in…

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