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More money for bankers! We have one at last! According to press reports, Kwasi Kwarteng is thinking of lifting the cap on bankers’ bonuses and presenting it as a Brexit win. To echo the eminent lawyer, Marshall Hall (asked by a judge if his clients were familiar with the phrase res ipsa loquitur) – Chancellor, in the Red Wall, they talk of little else. A little history. The best single essay on financial misbehaviour was written not by a journalist, academic…

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One thing that Boris Johnson has made absolutely clear is that he has hopes of some future in British politics. He continues to be a contributor to big discussions in the Commons and will go on getting a lot of attention from the news media. The question is can he possibly return to the job he had till 2 weeks ago? Clearly the first thing he needs is a vacancy at number 10 and Liz Truss looks pretty settled for…

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Liz Truss is just ending her first full week as prime minister and what an extremely tricky challenge she has had to face. Rather than have a short honeymoon period where she could make herself better known she has had to stand aside and make supporting the new monarch her first priority. She had one day with her original plan since then she has been totally overtaken by events. I don’t know what she had in mind for her first…

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I like this betting market because it seeks to look at the possibilities that there could be after the next election where it is beginning to look that neither of the main parties are in with a real chance of a majority. On this it is very important to check the market rules before making a bet. These are: This market relates to the Prime Minister of the first new government formed after the next UK general election. The first…

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The chart shows the next general election most seats betting and as can be seen that the first time both Labour and the Tories are placed at exactly 50% each. Even if the Tories do manage to edge it on the number of seats that doesn’t guarantee that the party will still hold the keys to Number 10 Downing Street. As we have noted before the Tories face the problem that it will be harder for them to find partners…

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Liz Triss needs to speak out One of the growing issues that is emerging has been the arrest by police of those who are demonstrating against the notion of monarchy. This happened again in Edinburgh today and I for one feel very uneasy about it. YouGov polling above from last May shows a significant backing for the monarchy but it also shows that a sizeable number of people are not supportive. This is why there are many who are increasingly…

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This point has been made before but given the way the betting markets currently give Labour a more than 25% chance of securing a majority it is worth restating. At the last election what was then Corbyn’s party won 202 of the 650 common seats in the worst election result for the party since GE1935. Given the current polling then it’s clear that they’re going to do considerably better than last time and the big question is how well. For…

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