A LAB majority now a 32% betting chance
The Tories are on 21%
It’s a 41% betting chance that Truss won’t survive 2023
The problems that Truss is having have not been helped by Starmer having a good conference and looking increasingly like the PM in waiting. Labour and its leader are on the up and the Tories moving down – something that CON MPs in marginal seats will only be too aware of. The way her government’s economic plans have gone down like a lead balloon have only added to the challenges that Truss and her largely inexperienced cabinet are having to…
Starmer’s speech gets a good reception
Kwarteng now 30% favourite for first cabinet exit
It was just 3 weeks ago today that Truss learned that she had become Tory leader and the successor to Johnson. In choosing her cabinet it was made clear that the main requirement was not that of being able to do the job but how loyal they had been to Truss during the leadership campaign. Inevitably this was going to lead to trouble. The amazing thing is that it all has happened so quickly, Her choice of Chancellor and allowing…
LAB moves to its biggest ever YouGov lead over the Tories
It can’t be long before we are hearing of letters being sent to Graham Brady. One of the self-inflicted problems that Truss has created is almost none of her team have any public standing. The time, surely, is running out for the woman who could only make third place in the MPs’ ballot. Mike Smithson
Worrying poll findings for Truss from YouGov and R&K
My September CON poll lead bet a looking a bit sick
Regular PBers will recall that back in July I was suggesting that a Tory poll lead in September was a likely possibility because the new leader would get a bounce. The contest finished on September 5th and there was plenty of time I reasoned during the month for just one poll to put the Tories over the line The pollster I thought might be the one to have a blue lead was Opinium because of its weighting mechanism and how…
Bojo moving up in the next CON leader betting
When Johnson was effectively sacked as Conservative leader and Prime Minister following the revolt by Tory MPs in July the widespread assumption was that he would leave politics and go and earn huge amounts of money as a columnist and guest speaker. The interesting thing is that what was predicted for Boris has not actually happened and he is still there playing an active role in politics and according to insiders looking to get his old job back. As the…