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Inevitably given the way the opinion polls have moved so sharply to Labour then Keir starmer has moved up in the betting to be the prime minister after the next general election. Note that this is not the next prime minister market which clearly has other Conservative alternatives to to Truss as well as Starmer Whether she actually survives to fight the next election is hard to say but undoubtedly there is a lot of worry within the Conservative parliamentary…

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There is a new YouGov poll in which the Tory deficit behind Labour is now at 28% which is a touch better than last week. What we do have from the firm is the latest best Prime Minister Question and as can be seen in the chart Truss trails Starmer by quite some margin. Just 13% of the sample rated Truss against 42% for Starmer. The detail of the poll finds that only 30% of those who voted Conservative at…

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It was always going to be a problem for Truss that she only won the support of less than 19% of the parliamentary Conservative Party during the leadership election first round. She was the third choice of MPs Her government launched a programme in the budget which totally changed decades of the Tory approach to the economy and taxation and large parts of the parliamentary party are not happy. Essentially she has over-reached herself and now the question is how…

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If the betting markets have got this right then Liz Truss is not likely to be fighting the next general election as Conservative leader and PM. The betting above shows that punters think she has just over a 10% chance of going this year with a near 59% chance of leaving in 2023 Clearly she has a lot to learn and once again today at PMQs she really struggled. She needs to prepare for this set piece even much better…

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Voters compare Truss with Starmer By far the worst numbers here for Truss are on likeability. That just 11% say she is likeable is awful for the PM and it is hard to see what she does about it. The perception spills over onto the trustworthy rating and whether they are seen as competent. One of the things that has been marked over the past five weeks is how Starmer’s personal ratings have moved up. She has been a godsend…

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What is happening in the financial markets now is as dangerous as what happened in October 2008. Unlike then, this does not relate to one or two failing institutions (though that is a crude summary of what happened). Rather, it is two-fold: on the financial side, the issue of government borrowing, how it is to be paid for and how a path back to some sort of fiscal stability to lay the foundations for growth are to be achieved. Politically,…

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One thing that is becoming clear is that Joe Biden is moving upwards in the White House race betting for 2024 but will he stand given that he celebrates his 80th birthday next month? He is reported to have told senior party figures that he is planning to put himself forwards though that has not been confirmed in public. What could make a difference might be how well the Democrats do in the November 8th mid-term elections which traditionally see…

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The voting intention polls over the last few weeks have been absolutely terrible for the Tories and their new leader Liz Truss. For whatever reason voters don’t seem to warm to Truss and the effect on the party could be catastrophic. Even if there is a bit of an improvement the challenge facing the governing party is immense. Tory MPs can do the maths and many will no doubt conclude that their time in the Commons will be over by…

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